2021 “Above the Line” Oscar Predictions – December

Every month I will be going through the “above the line” categories at the Oscars and giving my take on who I think will win, who will be nominated, and who are the first two out.

Moved Up

Moved Down

Picture

Winner:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nominees:

First Two Out:

• The U.S. vs. Billie Holiday

• News of the World

Removed:

• Da 5 Bloods – Netflix’s pallet might be too much for “Bloods”. They will ultimately push Lindo hard, but I feel have other priorities for Picture.
• Hillbilly Elegy – Acting is alive, but picture might be dead.

Director

Winner:

David Fincher – Mank

Nominees:

2. Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

3. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Regina King – One Night in Miami

5. Florian Zeller – The Father

First Two Out:

• Paul Greengrass – News of the World

• Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

Removed:

Lead Actor

Winner:

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Nominees:

2. Anthony Hopkins – The Father

3. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

4. Steven Yeun – Minari

5. Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah – Campaining as lead.

First Two Out:

• Gary Oldman – Mank

• Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Removed:

• Winston Duke – Nine Days – Pushed to Summer 2021.

Lead Actress

Winner:

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Nominees:

2. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland

4. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

5. Meryl Streep – The Prom

First Two Out:

• Andra Day – The U.S. vs Billie Holiday

• Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

Removed:

• Kate Winslet – Ammonite – The film and Winslet are both losing steam.

Supporting Actor

Winner:

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nominees:

2. Leslie Odom – One Night in Miami

3. Bill Murray – On the Rocks

4. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – Campaigning as supporting.

First Two Out

• Stanley Tucci – Supernova

• Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Removed:

• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – His campaign isn’t dead, but others are looking more likely from ‘Chicago’.

Supporting Actress

Winner:

Amanda Seyfired – Mank

Nominees:

2. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

3. Olivia Colman – The Father

4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

5. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

First Two Out:

• Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite – As I said with Winslet, the film is losing steam fast.

• Helena Zengel – News of the World

Removed:

Original Screenplay

Winner:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nominees:

2. Mank

3. Soul

4. Minari

5. Judas and the Black Messiah

First Out:

• On the Rocks

• Palm Springs

Removed:

Adapted Screenplay

Winner:

Nomadland

Nominees:

2. The Father

3. One Night in Miami

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. i’m thinking of ending things

First Two Out:

• News of the World

• The U.S. vs. Billie Holiday

Removed:

• Hillbilly Elegy

What do you think of my picks? Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @ Tberry57!

Jacob is a film critic and co-founder of the Music City Drive-In. He is a member of the Music City Film Critics’ Association and specializes in the awards season. You can find him on Twitter @Tberry57.