2021 “Above the Line” Oscar Predictions – December


Every month I will be going through the “above the line” categories at the Oscars and giving my take on who I think will win, who will be nominated, and who are the first two out.

New Entry

Moved Up

Moved Down

Picture

Trial of the Chicago 7' movie review: Aaron Sorkin delivers an instant  classic - Chicago Sun-Times

Winner:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nominees:

2. Nomadland

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Judas and the Black Messiah

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7. Soul

8. The Father

9. One Night in Miami

10. Promising Young Woman

First Two Out:

  • The U.S. vs. Billie Holiday
  • News of the World

Removed:

  • Da 5 BloodsNetflix’s pallet might be too much for “Bloods”. They will ultimately push Lindo hard, but I feel have other priorities for Picture.
  • Hillbilly Elegy – Acting is alive, but picture might be dead.

Director

David Fincher Will Not Join Social Media | IndieWire

Winner:

David Fincher – Mank

Nominees:

2. Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

3. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Regina King – One Night in Miami

5. Florian Zeller – The Father

First Two Out:

  • Paul Greengrass – News of the World
  • Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

Removed:

Lead Actor

Chadwick Boseman's Last Performance: A First Look at 'Ma Rainey's Black  Bottom' - The New York Times

Winner:

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Nominees:

2. Anthony Hopkins – The Father

3. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

4. Steven Yeun – Minari

5. Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah – Campaining as lead.

First Two Out:

  • Gary Oldman – Mank
  • Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Removed:

  • Winston Duke – Nine Days – Pushed to Summer 2021.

Lead Actress

Viola Davis Details 'Ma Rainey' Transformation: 200 Pounds, Fat Suit |  IndieWire

Winner:

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Nominees:

2. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland

4. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

5. Meryl Streep – The Prom

First Two Out:

  • Andra Day – The U.S. vs Billie Holiday
  • Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

Removed:

  • Kate Winslet – Ammonite – The film and Winslet are both losing steam.

Supporting Actor

Trial of the Chicago 7 Trailer: Aaron Sorkin Drama Is Oscar Ready |  IndieWire

Winner:

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nominees:

2. Leslie Odom – One Night in Miami

3. Bill Murray – On the Rocks

4. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – Campaigning as supporting.

First Two Out

  • Stanley Tucci – Supernova
  • Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Removed:

  • Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – His campaign isn’t dead, but others are looking more likely from ‘Chicago’.

Supporting Actress

Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfriend Star in First Trailer for Mank | PEOPLE.com

Winner:

Amanda Seyfired – Mank

Nominees:

2. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

3. Olivia Colman – The Father

4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

5. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

First Two Out:

  • Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite – As I said with Winslet, the film is losing steam fast.
  • Helena Zengel – News of the World

Removed:

Original Screenplay

First Look at Aaron Sorkin's 'The Trial of the Chicago 7' | Vanity Fair

Winner:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nominees:

2. Mank

3. Soul

4. Minari

5. Judas and the Black Messiah

First Out:

  • On the Rocks

Removed:

Adapted Screenplay

Nomadland (film) - Wikipedia

Winner:

Nomadland

Nominees:

2. The Father

3. One Night in Miami

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. i’m thinking of ending things

First Two Out:

  • News of the World
  • The U.S. vs. Billie Holiday

Removed:

  • Hillbilly Elegy

What do you think of my picks? Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @ Tberry57!

Jacob is a film critic and co-founder of the Music City Drive-In. He is a member of the Music City Film Critics’ Association and specializes in the awards season. You can find him on Twitter @Tberry57.

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