FINAL 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions

2022 Oscar nominations will take place at 5:18am PT on February 8th. I know we have a habit of every year saying something like “it’s so up in the air” or “the race is anybody’s game”, but this year, it’s all very much true. We have a year where the old front runners of leading actress could maybe not even get a nomination, we could see three snubs in leading actor, Kenneth Branagh may miss out on a director nomination to an international feature… yeah, a lot could happen!
 
I think we can all say for sure that my 1-5 are the awards juggernauts of this year. All are slam dunks for a BP nomination and all looking most likely to win at least one above the line category. West Side Story was at one stage looking to be a potential upset for a WIN in BP, but after it’s snubbage at the guilds and BAFTAs for category’s it should easily be getting into, we should all just be grateful for its nomination.
 
Don’t Look Up and CODA I initially had a hard time seeing how they’ll play out this awards season, with DLU having mixed critical reviews and CODA having a very early release. But they have both done nothing but dominated in its nominations, especially at the BAFTAs which can say a lot about what is having a last-minute surge, so I’d be silly to doubt them now.

tick, tick… BOOM! Is a movie I’m having a hard time with. I want to say it’s in as it got PGA and CC, but with its inevitable lack of nominations, it does make we wonder how strong it’ll be if it lacks support from any particular branch. However, its strongest support will probably come from the actors branch which is the biggest and most diverse in the academy, which gives me hope.
 
Then there is the immensely difficult 10th slot. Many have turned to Being the Ricardos as it got into PGA, but PGA doesn’t often align with the Oscars 100%. Here’s a list of the PGA nominees of the past ten years which got snubbed at the Oscars:
 
2009: 9/10 (Star Trek out for The Blind Side)
2010: 9/10 (The Town out for Winter’s Bone)
2011: Bridemaids, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March out; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close in
2012: Moonrise KingdomSkyfall out; Amour in
2013: Blue Jasmine, Saving Mr. Banks out; Philomena in
2014: FoxcatcherGone GirlNightcrawler out; Selma in
2015: Ex MachinaSicarioStraight Outta Compton out; Room in
2016: Deadpool out; no replacement
2017: The Big Sick, I, Tonya, Molly’s Game, Wonder Woman out; Darkest HourPhantom Thread in
2018: Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place out; no replacements
2019: Knives Out out; no replacements
2020: Borat, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, One Night in Miami out; The Father in
With there being that guaranteed 10th slot, it makes it all the more unlikely that the PGA will predict all the Oscar nominees in Best Picture. So, it makes me think outside of the box a little. What movie is surging late? What has a lot of passion behind it? What has been one of the most well acclaimed movies of the year? This leads me to Drive My Car. It always seemed like a possibility. It’s just so good that if you see it, how do you deny it? BAFTAs nominating it in director and screenplay is also very telling, shows awards voters are paying attention to it. So, it’s no guarantee, House of Gucci has a lot of love behind it with actors, clearly shown with its SAG nomination, and Being the Ricardos just keeps climbing that awards ladder, but I think there’s enough here to justify me having Drive My Car at 10.
 
Best Picture
 
1 – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2 – Belfast (Focus Features)
3 – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
4 – King Richard (Warner Bros)
5 – Dune (Warner Bros)
6 – West Side Story (20th Century Fox)
7 – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
8 – CODA (Apple TV+)
9 – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
10 – Drive My Car (Bitters End)
—————————————–
11 – Being the Ricardos (Amazon)
12 – House of Gucci (MGM)
13 – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
 
Best Director
 
1 – Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
2 – Denis Villeneuve – Dune
3 – Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
4 – Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
5 – Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
—————————————————
6 – Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
7 – Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up
8 – Sian Heder – CODA
9 – Guillermo Del Toro – Nightmare Alley
10 – Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
11 – Julia Ducourneau – Titane
 
Best Actress
 
1 – Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
2 – Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
3 – Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
4 – Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
5 – Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
—————————————–
6 – Kirsten Stewart – Spencer
7 – Jennifer Hudson – Respect
8 – Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
9 – Renate Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World
10 – Rachel Zegler – West Side Story
11 – Emilia Jones – CODA
 
Best Actor
 
1 – Will Smith – King Richard
2 – Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
3 – Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… BOOM!
4 – Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
5 – Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
——————————————————
6 – Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
7 – Peter Dinklage – Cyrano
8 – Nicolas Cage – Pig
 
Best Supporting Actress
 
1 – Ariana Debose – West Side Story
2 – Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
3 – Caitriona Balfe – Belfast
4 – Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
5 – Ruth Negga – Passing
——————————————
6 – Ann Dowd – Mass
7 – Jesse Buckley – The Lost Daughter
8 – Marlee Matlin – CODA
9 – Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
10 – Rita Moreno – West Side Story
 
Best Supporting Actor
 
1 – Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
2 – Troy Kotsur – CODA
3 – Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
4 – Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
5 – Jared Leto – House of Gucci
————————————————
6- J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
7 – Mike Faist – West Side Story
8 – Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
9 – Jamie Dornan – Belfast
10 – Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar
 
Original Screenplay
 
1 – Licorice Pizza
2 – Belfast
3 – Don’t Look Up
4 – King Richard
5 – Being the Ricardos
—————————–
6 – The Worst Person in the World
7 – Mass
8 – C’mon C’mon
 
Adapted Screenplay
 
1 – The Power of the Dog
2 – CODA
3 – Dune
4 – The Lost Daughter
5 – Drive My Car
——————————
6 – West Side Story
7 – tick, tick… BOOM!
8 – Passing
 
Cinematography
 
1 – Dune
2 – The Power of the Dog
3 – The Tragedy of Macbeth
4 – Nightmare Alley
5 – West Side Story
—————————
6 – Belfast
7 – Licorice Pizza
8 – No Time to Die
9 – The French Dispatch
 
Editing
 
1 – Dune
2 – Don’t Look Up
3 – Belfast
4 – No Time to Die
5 – Licorice Pizza
——————————-
6 – West Side Story
7 – The Power of the Dog
8 – tick, tick… BOOM!
9 – King Richard
 
Production Design
 
1 – Dune
2 – Nightmare Alley
3 – West Side Story
4 – The French Dispatch
5 – The Tragedy of Macbeth
——————————-
6 – Cyrano
7 – Belfast
8 – Being the Ricardos
9 – Licorice Pizza
10 – The Power of the Dog
 
Costume Design
 
1 – Cruella
2 – Dune
3 – West Side Story
4 – Nightmare Alley
5 – House of Gucci
——————————
6 – Cyrano
7 – The French Dispatch
8 – Licorice Pizza
9 – The Power of the Dog
 
Makeup & Hairstyling
 
1 – House of Gucci
2 – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3 – Dune
4 – Coming 2 America
5 – Cruella
————————————-
6 – Nightmare Alley
7 – The Suicide Squad
8 – West Side Story
9 – Cyrano
10 – No Time to Die
 
Original Score
 
1 – Dune
2 – The Power of the Dog
3 – The French Dispatch
4 – Don’t Look Up
5 – Encanto
——————————
6 – Parallel Mothers
7 – Spencer
8 – No Time to Die
9 – The Tragedy of Macbeth
10 – King Richard
11 – Being the Ricardos
12 – The Green Knight
13 – The Last Duel
14 – The Harder They Fall
15 – Candyman
 
Original Song
 
1 – “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
2 – “Be Alive” – King Richard
3 – “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto
4 – “Just Look Up” – Don’t Look Up
5 – “Somehow You” – Four Good Days
——————————–
6 – “Guns Go Bang” – The Harder They Fall 
7 – “Here I Am” – Respect
8 – “Down to Joy” – Belfast
9 – “Beyond the Shore” – CODA
10 – “Automatic Woman” – Bruised
11 – “The Anonymous Ones” – Dear Evan Hansen
12 – “So May We Start?” – Annette
13 – “Right Where I Belong” – Brian Wilson: Song Promise Road
14 – “Your Song Saved My Life” – Sing 2
15 – “Dream Girl” – Cinderella
 
Visual Effects
 
1 – Dune
2 – Free Guy
3 – No Time to Die
4 – Godzilla vs. Kong
5 – Matrix Resurrections
———————————–
6 – Spider-Man: No Way Home
7 – Ghostbusters: Afterlife
8 – Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings
9 – Black Widow
10 – Eternals
 
Sound
 
1 – Dune
2 – No Time to Die
3 – West Side Story
4 – A Quiet Place Part II
5 – Last Night in Soho
———————————
6 – Belfast
7 – tick, tick… BOOM!
8 – The Power of the Dog
9 – Spider-Man: No Way Home
10 – The Matrix Resurrections
 
Documentary Feature
 
1 – Summer of Soul
2 – The Rescue
3 – Flee
4 – Procession
5 – The First Wave
————————-
6 – Ascension
7 – Attica
8 – President
9 – Julia
10 – The Velvet Underground
11 – In the Same Breath
12 – Faya Dayi
13 – Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry
14 – Simple As Water
15 – Writing with Fire
 
International Feature
 
1 – Drive My Car
2 – The Worst Person in the World
3 – The Hand of God
4 – A Hero
5 – Flee
——————————
6 – Compartment No. 6
7 – Lamb
8 – I’m Your Man
9 – Prayers for the Stolen
10 – Great Freedom
11 – The Good Boss
12 – Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
13 – Hive
14 – Playground
15 – Plaza Catedral
 
Animated Feature
 
1 – Encanto
2 – The Mitchells vs. the Machines
3 – Flee
4 – Luca
5 – Raya and the Last Dragon
——————–
6 – Sing 2
7 – Belle
8 – The Summit of the Gods
9 – Vivo
 
 
 
 
 

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