Academy Award Predictions

The 98th Academy Awards will—finally—take place on Sunday, March 15. That will put an end, officially, to the 2025 Movie Year. It’s a fascinating slate of films. Below are my fearless predictions for Sunday’s ceremony. I also wanted to add a twist of what would win if I alone, based on personal taste and preference, were voting. So, the “Will Win” is my official selection. Whereas “Matt’s Winner” is me voting with my heart. Enjoy the picks below and we’ll see what happens on Sunday night!

Best Picture

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Will Win: Sinners. I think the tide has turned.
Matt’s Winner: Sentimental Value. I’ve thought about it a lot. I just loved this film.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Michael B Jordan – Sinners

Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Michael B. Jordan. He’s been my favorite for months, now he seems to be surging!

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

Emma Stone – Bugonia

Will Win: Jessie Buckley. She’s a steamroller.
Matt’s Winner: Renate Reinsve. She has been my favorite all season.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan – Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners

Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Will Win: Wunmi Mosaku. I feel Sinners is surging.
Matt’s Winner: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. Again, I just loved the film.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo – Sinners

Sean Penn – One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Sean Penn. He’s been a force this season, and in the film.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler – Sinners

Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao – Hamnet

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson. This film was an achievement.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Train Dreams

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: One Battle After Another. It’s a tough category, but this stood out.

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Sinners. What Coogler did is amazing.

Best Original Song

Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless

Golden – KPop Demon Hunters

I Lied to You – Sinners

Sweet Dreams of Joy – Viva Verdi!

Train Dreams – Train Dreams

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Golden. This song is kind of a banger.

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Sinners. This had a great score.

Best international feature

It Was Just an Accident

Sentimental Value

Sirât

The Secret Agent

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Sentimental Value. I think I’ve made clear this is my movie.

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters. It’s been a phenomenon.
Matt’s Winner: Elio. I might be the only one, but I loved Elio.

Best Documentary Feature

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting Through the Rocks

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

The Alabama Solution

The Perfect Neighbor

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: The Perfect Neighbor. It was the best documentary I saw in 2025.

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

Will Win: Frankenstein. I think it picks up craft awards.
Matt’s Winner: Sinners. I liked the period look.

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

Frankenstein

Kokuho

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

The Ugly Stepsister

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Frankenstein. It is a worthy winner here.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Will Win: Frankenstein. Probably the last win for the monster movie.
Matt’s Winner: Sinners. Again, I loved the period look.

Best Sound

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Sirât

Will Win: F1. Probably it’s one win.
Matt’s Winner: Sinners. The sound design is great.

Best Film Editing

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Sinners. I think Sinners wins a lot.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

Will Win: One Battle After Another. This could be Sinners, I’m torn.
Matt’s Winner: Train Dreams. The best shot film of the last year.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Jurassic World Rebirth

Sinners

The Lost Bus

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash. This is probably the Avatar category.

Best Live-action Short

A Friend of Dorothy

Butcher’s Stain

Jane Austen’s Period Drama

The Singers

Two People Exchanging Saliva

Will Win: The Singers. I just have a feeling.
Matt’s Winner: Jan Austen’s Period Drama. This was amazing.

Best Animated Short

Butterfly

Forevergreen

Retirement Plan

The Girl Who Cried Pearls

The Three Sisters

Will Win: Butterfly
Matt’s Winner: Forevergreen. This was beautiful

Best Documentary Short

All the Empty Rooms

Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Children No More: Were and Are Gone

The Devil Is Busy

Perfectly a Strangeness

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: All the Empty Rooms. Devastating film.

Best Casting

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Secret Agent

Will Win/Matt’s Winner: Sinners. This has an amazing cast.

Matthew Fox is a graduate of the Radio, Television and Film program at Biola University, and a giant nerd. He spends his free time watching movies, TV, and obsessing about football. He is a member of the FSWA. You can find him @knighthawk7734 on Twitter and as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast.