2022 Oscar Predictions: November

Nothing gives me more of an intense adrenaline rush then knowing awards seasons is just around the corner. With Critics Choice AND Golden Globes nominations coming in little over a month, we’ve got a fun four months ahead of us, with the Oscars being the end goal in March.

Since I last did my Oscar predictions, a whole lot has changed. Movies dropping out of the race (Blonde, Canterbury Glass and Next Goal Wins being big ones), and others not seeming as hopeful as they once did (In the Heights, The Tragedy of Macbeth). We’ve also had some that have joined the race with aggressive force, the big one being Belfast, which just popped up at the festival circuit and is now the front runner for Best Picture!

Unlikely hopefuls now seem like they may have a shot, with movies like Mass and Titane seeming more likely as the days go on. I think this has a lot to say about the Academy trying to change their ways and want to open up to the genres of movies they once didn’t. I have taken this into account when writing up my predictions, and with that…

Best Picture

1 – Belfast

2 – Dune

3 – Licorice Pizza

4 – King Richard

5 – Nightmare Alley

6 – Don’t Look Up

7 – The Power of the Dog

8 – Being the Ricardos

9 – West Side Story

10 – Mass

I’d love to be different to everyone else, but I just can’t. Yes, there’s a good chance things could change. But with the facts we have now, there is no way I could budge from Belfast being the current #1 to take Best Picture. It has stormed the festival audience awards, it played at Telluride, where every Best Picture winner of the past twenty years has played (except Green Book, which won TIFF People’s Choice Award). I haven’t seen Belfast but I really hope the front runner changes somehow as it’ll make for one hell of a fun race, but for now, Belfast has the top spot.

If Belfast has any sort of competition, for now I think that will be Dune, Licorice Pizza or maybe, just maybe, King Richard.

My case for Dune is that it is the technical achievement not just of the year, but maybe since Mad Max Fury Road. It’s such an incredible feeling after a pandemic where we barely got to see any new releases at the movie theatre, to have something like Dune, such a ‘big’ movie which feels just so larger than life. If it does win, it’ll probably be a campaign of its own that we want more movies like Dune and we don’t ever want to lose that big, theatrical experience.

Moving along, we have PTA’s latest movie and by the looks of things, his most personal, Licorice Pizza. This looks like it could be such an entertaining and heart-warming movie. Early reaction seems to be it’s good but not great, but everyone thought the same of Once Upon a time in Hollywood and that came close to winning BP, and I feel like Licorice Pizza has a similar fate. It could EASILY win Original Screenplay and would be a fantastic way to honour PTA.

Then there is King Richard, which many are predicting to be the current runner up. Here’s the thing. I think Green Book winning BP was the end of an era, we’re not going to see it again, or at least for a long time. Like how Parasite was the outcast in other BP winners, Green Book style movies will soon be like that, the world and the Academy are moving on. BUT, if there is a path it’s this. Will Smith is almost a guarantee to take Best Actor. It’s next best shot is Original Screenplay, which will be very tough as there is strong, and frankly, better competition. Actor and OG seem like two awards it can win that will lead it to a Best Picture win, but that seems unlikely.

Next in Line:

11 – Spencer

12 – C’mon C’mon

13 – House of Gucci

14 – In the Heights

Best Director

1 – Denis Villeneuve (Dune)

2 – Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)

3 – Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

4 – Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)

5 – Julia Ducournau (Titane)

I can honestly see any of these four men and women winning and it’s killing me as to which should be the number one.

I have Villeneuve as my number one for now as he has the best incentive to win. Well respected director whose time has come to win his first Oscar, after making the biggest movie of 2021 and helped bring back to life the power of filmmaking. Dune is also a Best Picture front runner which always helps, and they tend to give it to the biggest, most director-y movie (i.e. Nomadland, Roma).

Branagh is my number two as Belfast is the number one to take Best Picture so it by default puts it into the Director conversation. Belfast is also black and white which voters seem to love to eat up, and much like Villeneuve, people love him and it is ‘his time’ to win the gold.

Jane Campions The Power of the Dog is very reminiscent of this years Best Picture winner, Nomadland. Minimalistic but powerful and directing, using natural lighting and wide scope shots to tell a slow and emotional story. It would be easy to put her as my number one for this reason just alone like many are, but this was a weaker year for the Directing category and I’m wondering if whether more established competition makes it harder for Campion.

This really feels like it could be PTA’s year. However, even if Licorice Pizza wins Best Picture, I just don’t think it will win Best Director. Judging from the trailers alone it doesn’t seem to be the most hardcore directed movie ever which is what the Academy seem to be looking out for.  

I know some will think I’m crazy for putting Julia Ducournau over the likes of Guillermo Del Toro and Joel Coen, but hear me out. The directors branch over at the Academy has an overwhelming number of international directors, hence why every year there is at least one nominee of an international movie (Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, Bong Joon Ho for Parasite, Alfonso Caurón and Pawel Pawlikowski both in the same year for Roma and Cold War). Everyone who sees Titane absolutely loves it and raves no end about the directing, or hate it, but still praise the directing. Everyone is just obsessed with Ducornau’s vision. If I had to choose one international director who will get it, it is for sure this one. So you know what, I’m happy to take the risk.

Next in Line:

6 – Guillermo Del Toro (Nightmare Alley)

7 – Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick, tick… BOOM!)

8 – Pablo Larrain (Spencer)

9 – Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)

Best Actress

1 – Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

2 – Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

3 – Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)

4 – Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)

5 – Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)

I think this Best Actress race is such an aggressive two horse race and I can’t wait to see it. Many seem to think it’s going to be Stewart who takes the gold, no questions asked. I disagree. I think Chastain does MORE than enough to win and I think they’re both really going to split votes. Stewart has the more emotional performance, Chastain the showier. We’ve seen both these types of performances win before making it hard to predict on it alone. Princess Diana is loved by most in the UK and BAFTA are more likely to vote for the more emotional performance, and BAFTA are INSANELY good at predicting Best Actress, from upsets like Marion Cotillard, Olivia Colman to this year’s Frances McDormand, they seem to have almost the exact same mind set as Oscar voters in this category.

HOWEVER, as of writing this, Stewart had some colourful words to describe her thoughts on the Oscars and her buzz, stating you doesn’t “give a sh-“. I can’t see Academy members taking this well. In context of the conversation, she isn’t as aggressive as it sounds, but she still doesn’t seem too keen on the idea of the Oscars. Yes, Joaquin Phoenix did say something similar, but that was years before his win when many had forgotten, and he did apologise for his words and seemed very humble throughout the whole awards season. Things can change and maybe she’ll apologise and explain her meaning, but for now I’m giving Chastain the edge.

Next in Line:

6 – Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)

7 – Jennifer Hudson (Respect)

8 – Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)

9 – Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Best Actor

1 – Will Smith (King Richard)

2 – Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)

3 – Andrew Garfield (tick, tick… BOOM!)

4 – Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)

5 – Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon)

Piling on the audience awards, this is Will Smith’s to lose and honestly this is the most certain I am on any acting category. He’s really trying to make this his year and honestly, it’s working. He’s got a new memoir out, a Youtube comedy special. People are falling in love with this man all over again and with how incredible he is in King Richard, I can’t see anything stopping him, YET!

Only 20 men have been nominated for Leading Actor, so it would be amazing if we could get two more added to that list with Peter Dinklage and Andrew Garfield. This stat does make me pessimistic about having them both in my top 5, but they’re being praised to highly I don’t see how I can ignore it. Yeah, things change and it’s very likely this won’t be the 5 men who are nominated, but this seems like the most likely 5 thus far.

Next in Line:

6 – Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

7 – Clifton Collins, Jr. (Jockey)

8 – Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)

9 – Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)

Best Supporting Actress

1 – Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)

2 – Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)

3 – Ann Dowd (Mass)

4 – Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

5 – Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up)

I LOVE THIS CATEGORY.

It just seems so up in the air and I could see any of these five women winning, and this isn’t even the official nominees. They all have a case to make and I think we could have a different winner at each ceremony, much like this year in the Leading Actress category.

I think the person with the best case is Dunst. Well respected actress who’s making a comeback. From what I’ve heard it’s the type of performance that defines a career, and the Academy love that. There’s something so warm and sentimental that someone like Dunst who has gone from Spider Man to Melancholia, now comes back and does such a quiet and withdraw performance.

But this is without competition, because all these other women are right up Dunst’s ass for the win. I’d love to see Ann Dowd win as she clearly gives the best performance. Aunjanue Ellis is able to stand neck on neck with Will Smith, yes Smith, who is looking at a win, and even bests him in a scene. But I think Caitriona Balfe is the main competition here. She’s in the Best Picture front runner which is always helpful in any category. She plays a vulnerable mother who laughs, cries, goes through all the notions, now try and tell me this doesn’t sound like an Oscar. I haven’t seen Belfast so I can’t comment personally but I’ve heard some say it would be a very generic win, so I hope this isn’t true and she does indeed deserve the win.

Next in Line:

6 – Ruth Negga (Passing)

7 – Marleen Matlin (CODA)

8 – Judi Dench (Belfast)

9 – Arianna DeBose (West Side Story)

Best Supporting Actor

1 – Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza)

2 – Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)

3 – Jared Leto (House of Gucci)

4 – Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)

5 – Jamie Dornan (Belfast)

I don’t know. I simply don’t have a clue.

So far there hasn’t been an actor who has really stood out in this category and it makes it so exciting. There’s a good chance the five could be completely different from my one.

Both Belfast and The Power of the Dog are hoping to get double noms in this category. 2017 saw the first double nom in supporting actor since 1991’s Bugsy, but since then it happened again in 2020 for The Irishman, AND AGAIN when both LaKeith Stanfield and eventual winner Daniel Kaluuya got infamously co-nominated.

But that’s all I have to say. This category isn’t clear at all and it’s driving me insane.

Next in Line:
6 – Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

7 – Richard Jenkins (The Humans)

8 – Jon Bernthal (King Richard)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1 – The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)

2 – Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin)

3 – Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan)

4 – tick, tick… BOOM! (Steven Levenson)

5 – Dune (Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth & Jon Spaiths)

Netflix may end up dominating this category. I already have two of their movies in my top 5,  but there’s room for The Lost Daughter and Passing to make it in here. For now, The Power of the Dog takes my number one. I want to put Sorkin at one as he does stellar screenplays and he is loved by the awards circuit, but not enough people have seen ‘Ricardos in order for me to know whether it’s going to be an Oscars front runner or not.

Some may be wondering why I’ve got Dune, a Sci-Fi epic over The Lost Daughter and Passing. It’s simple, any Best Picture contender always needs to be considered for Screenplay, more so then director. Remember when 1917 was nominated in Original Screenplay and we all went nuts? That was the power of it being a Best Picture front runner! If it loses its steam, I may add something else, but for now I’m comfortable it being my number five.

Next in Line:

6 – The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)

7 – Passing (Rebecca Hall)
8 – CODA (Siân Heder)

Best Original Screenplay

1 – Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)

2 – Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)

3 – King Richard (Zach Baylin)

4 – C’mon C’mon (Mike Mills)

5 – Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay)

This is why I don’t think it’s a no brainer that Belfast will win Best Picture. It is very true that you need to at least win a screenplay award and/or director in order to get Best Picture. In my opinion, Belfast isn’t looking likely to win either categories, and this is very exciting to me, leaves suspense for what could win Best Picture.

PTA is my number one as he is an eight tine, no win nominee at the Oscars and is immensely well respected. The Academy haven’t stopped loving this man, which they proved when they nominated Phantom Thread in both Director and Picture when nobody else cared. I hear Licorice Pizza is a warm, fuzzy, coming of age story, and the Academy are going to love this. I really feel like this could happen for him. Look out folks.

Next in Line:

6 – The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt)

7 – Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar)

8 – Spencer (Steven Knight)

Best Cinematography

1 – Dune (Greig Fraser)

2 – The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)

3 – Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos)

4 – Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen)

5 – Spencer (Claire Mathon)

Next in Line:

6 – The French Dispatch (Robert Yeoman)

7 – The Tradegy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)

8 – West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

9 – C’mon C’mon (Robbie Ryan)

Best Editing

1 – Dune (Joe Walker)

2 – Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)

3 – Belfast (Una Ni Dhonghaile)

4 – Nightmare Alley (Cam McLauchlin)

5 – tick, tick… BOOM! (Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum)

Next in Line:

6 – The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)

7 – West Side Story (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)

8 – The Matrix Resurrections (Joseph Jett Sally)

Best Production Design

1 – Dune (Patrice Vermotte, Richard Roberts, Zsuzsanna Sipos)

2 – Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau)

3 – The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh)

4 – The French Dispatch (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)

5 – Belfast (Jim Clay, Claire Nia Richards)

Next in Line:

6 – Being the Ricardos (Jon Hutman & Ellen Brill)

7 – The Power of the Dog (Grant Major & Amber Richards)

8 – West Side Story (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)

9 – The Last Duel (Arthur Max & Judy Farr)

Best Costume Design

1 – Cruella (Jenny Beavan)

2 – Dune (Jacqueline West)

3 – Spencer (Jacqueline Durran)

4 – Nightmare Alley (Luis Siqueira)

5 – House of Gucci (Janty Yates)

Next in Line:

6 – The French Dispatch (Milena Cananero)

7 – The Tragedy of Macbeth (Mary Zophres)

8 – Being the Ricardos (Susan Lyall)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1 – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2 – Dune

3 – House of Gucci

4 – Nightmare Alley

5 – King Richard

Next in Line:

6 – The Suicide Squad

7 – Cruella

8 – Titane

Best Visual Effects

1 – Dune

2 – Godzilla vs. Kong

3 – The Matrix Resurrection

4 – Don’t Look Up

5 – Free Guy

Next in Line:

6 – Ghostbusters: Afterlife

7 – Spider-Man: No Way Home

Best Original Score

1 – Dune

2 – Spencer

3 – Don’t Look Up

4 – The French Dispatch

5 – The Power of the Dog

Next in Line:

6 – Belfast

7 – Luca

8 – No Time to Die

Best Original Song

1 – “Be Alive” from King Richard

2 – “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die 

3 – “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto

4 -“Fire in the Sky” from Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

5 – “Home All Summer” from In the Heights 

Best Sound

1 – Dune

2 – The Matrix Resurrection

3 – No Time to Die

4 – West Side Story

5 – tick, tick… BOOM!

Next in Line:

6 – Belfast

7 – A Quiet Place Part II

Best Documentary Feature

1 – The Rescue

2 – Flee

3 – Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

4 – Procession

5 – Val

Best Animated Feature

1 – Flee

2 – Encanto

3 – The Mitchells vs the Machines

4 – Luca

5 – Belle

Next in Line:

6 – Raya and the Last Dragon

Best International Feature Film

1 – Flee

2 – The Worst Person in the World

3 – Titane

4 – The Hand of God

5 – Parallel Mothers

Next in Line:

6 – A Hero

*ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE MOVIE EACH COUNTRY CHOOSES TO SUBMIT*

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.