FINAL Oscar Predictions: Original Screenplay

Reference: BFCA (Broadcast Film Critics Association) – GG (Golden Globe) – WGA (Writers Guild Award)

  • 1 – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTABFCA, GG, WGA – Written by Emerald Fennell
  • 2 – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA , GG, WGA – Written by Aaron Sorkin
  • 3 – Minari (A24) – BFCA (WGA ineligible) – BFCA (WGA ineligible)
  • 4 – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – WGA – Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
  • 5 – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, WGA – Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance

*Winners in bold.

With BAFTA, BFCA and WGA going to Ms. Fennell for ‘Promising Young Woman’, it’s pretty clear to me this is the movie to beat. The Golden Globes are the only person to pick something different, in this case it was to Aaron Sorkin for ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’, but I think this echos that they love the man, remember when they gave ‘Steve Jobs’ Best Screenplay when it was snubbed for the Oscar where the category is split?

All that being said, I still think ‘Trial is the clear runner up. It does have a path to win here as ‘Green Book’ also won Original Screenplay with just a GG win, and it had a rival (‘The Favourite’) that had won at more places. If ‘Trial does win here I’ll be clenching my teeth the whole ceremony as it’ll mean the door has been opened for a Best Picture upset.

Whilst I like ‘Trial greatly and Aaron Sorkin is my favourite screenwriter, it will be so sad to see him win here as it’ll mean we’ll miss out on Fennell winning here and if ‘The Father’ wins in Adapted Screenplay, it will be another year of men winning both screenplay awards when we can have a year in which a woman wins in Original or Adapted since 2008’s ‘Juno’ and history could be made if ‘Nomadland’ wins in Adapted as it’ll be a first in which 100% of the winners will all be women.

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