FINAL Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature Film

FINAL Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature Film

ReferenceGG (Golden Globes) – BFCA (Broadcast Film Critics Association)

  • 1 – Another Round (Denmark) – GG, BAFTA, BFCA
  • 2 – Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) – BAFTA
  • 3 – Collective (Romania) – BAFTA, BFCA
  • 4 – The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
  • 5 – Better Days (Hong Kong)

*Wins in bold.

Yet a third year in a row where the International Feature Film winner has been abundantly obvious. What is interesting, is that the destined winner only has one precursor win where it probably only just squeezed a win. The answer to this is that ‘Minari’, an obviously American film, has been campaigned in Foreign Language categories wherever it is eligible, but the Oscars simply said “no” to this as a film with an amount of foreign language in doesn’t make it an international film. This is where the door for ‘Another Round’ has been completely opened and there is nothing stopping it from winning.

As soon as it was made known that ‘Minari’ wasn’t eligible, it was obvious ‘Another Round’ is the new front runner until we know otherwise. But like it wasn’t obvious enough, the Oscars pulled a surprise on us on nomination morning where they nominated Thomas Vinterberg for director completely out of left field. THEN, ‘Another Round’ won foreign language film at the BAFTA’s where ‘Minari’ was eligible and nominated.

If there is to be an upset, it will be ‘Quo Vadis, Aida?’. It’s done pretty well during the later part of awards season, even garnering a Best Director nomination at the BAFTA’s. It’s the “important” film of the nominees, and whilst I think some voters will appreciate this, it just doesn’t take away from the love ‘Another Round’ has, and I hate to say it, but many voters will vote for it because they know it’s the front runner without having watched it.

Interestingly enough, the Oscars did their own thing with the other nominees as ‘Better Days’ and ‘The Man Who Sold His Skin’ were both nominated without any precursors. This gives me hope as it shows maybe the Academy voters are taking their role more seriously and watching all the nominees. ‘Collective’ was nominated at BAFTA’s and BFCA so it was a sturdy nominee, but if it couldn’t win BAFTA, then I’d say it’s very unlikely it will win the Oscar.

I should probably mention now, the Academy have a strict procedure for eligibility in the International Feature category and a country has to submit one film they want to be considered for a nomination. ‘The Life Ahead’, a brilliant, heart-warming movie fell victim to this and Italy decided not to submit it for a nomination. I bring this up as there is always that one movie every year that everyone agrees should be nominated and maybe even win but doesn’t submit itself. For example, last year ‘Portrait of a Lady on Fire’ wasn’t submitted even though it was a critics favourite, instead, ‘Les Miserables’ from France was submitted, though it still got a nomination. So if you’re wondering why one of your favourite foreign films wasn’t nominated, it’s not bad, it probably wasn’t submitted.

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