FINAL Oscar Predictions: Original Song

FINAL Oscar Predictions: Original Song

  • 1 – “Speak Now”, One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios) – GG, BFCA, HMMA Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
  • 2 – “IO SI” (Seen), The Life Ahead (Netflix) – GG, BFCA, HMMA, SCL Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
  • 3 – “Husavik”, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, SCL Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
  • 4 – “Fight For You”, Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – GG, BFCA, HMMA Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
  • 5 – “Hear My Voice”, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, GMS, HMMA Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

*Wins in bold.

More often then not, the Best Original Song winner is a very predictable category, just take the past two years for example, ‘Shallow’ and ‘I’m Gonna Love Me Again’ were the biggest locks if there was to ever be a locked category. So it’s quite refreshing to see a year in which the category is up in the air, and the three things I’m thinking are: will they go with the original front runner, will they go with a very overdue nominee, or do they go with the only song out of the nominees in which it features in the film, not just a play over song for the credits.

I still think “Speak Now” takes the edge. Yes, I’ll admit I’m a little bit biased as I do think it’s the best song out of the line-up. But, to be fair, I think many others think it is, too. It has also got a nice boost from being performed at the BAFTA’s along with “Hear My Voice”, problem with that song is that the lyrics and music are quite generic and nothing about it feels ‘big’, which is what the Oscar’s look for. “Speak Now” also has the benefit of Leslie Odom, Jr. Even though names aren’t on ballots for any category outside of acting, voters will resonate that song with Odom, Jr. and they may want to honour him in one category seeming as he is also nominated for supporting actor.

Now here is an interesting one, will Diane Warren win on her 12th nomination. I’m on the fence. It’s a good song, maybe the Italian translation covers the lyrics, but it is still a good song to my ears. What I’m curious about is if a large majority of voters even know Warren has anything to do with “IO SI”. It’s an Italian song from an Italian film and Warren has never been associated with this country, and remember that names aren’t on ballots. If she is going off the ‘overdue’ incentive, then this could be a threat.

Lastly, will the Academy voters appreciate the only song that features IN the movie, not just tacked onto the credits, maybe. I’m conflicted on whether it being in the movie goes for or against it. The argument for why it would benefit its Oscar chances is that I think the voters may appreciate the song being used in the story and helps wraps up the Eurovision scenes of the film. It is also a big, grand song which puts you on an emotional high. The argument for against is that ‘Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga’ is a silly comedy film starring Will Ferrell that otherwise wouldn’t have a shot at the Oscars if it wasn’t for the song. I’m worried that more high brow voters will turn away from voting for this song because of this. It is actually a really good song with or without the context of the film, but this may not mean much to some voters.

Tune in to the 93rd Oscars on April 25th on ABC Networks

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