2021 “Above the Line” Oscar Predictions – November

Every month I will be going through the “above the line” categories at the Oscars and giving my take on who I think will win, who will be nominated, and who are the first two out.

Listen To My Thoughts On The Oscar Race Here

New Entry

Moved Up

Moved Down

Lock for Nomination


Trial of the Chicago 7' movie review: Aaron Sorkin delivers an instant  classic - Chicago Sun-Times


The Trial of the Chicago 7


2. Nomadland – Golden Lion, TIFF People’s Choice

3. Soul

4. Mank

5. Minari

6. Judas and the Black Messiah

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. The Father

9. Hillbilly Elegy

10. News of the World

First Two Out:

  • One Night in Miami
  • Da 5 Bloods



David Fincher Will Not Join Social Media | IndieWire


David Fincher – Mank


2. Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

3. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Paul Greengrass – News of the World

5. Florian Zeller – The Father

First Two Out:

  • Regina King – One Night in Miami
  • Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods


Lead Actor

The Father Trailer Starring Anthony Hopkins, Olivia Colman & Imogen Poots -  ComingSoon.net


Anthony Hopkins – The Father


2. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Netflix campaigning him as a lead.

3. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

4. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

5. Gary Oldman – Mank

First Two Out:

  • Steven Yeun – Minari
  • Winston Duke – Nine Days


  • Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
    • The, rather shocking, news about Chadwick being pushed as lead pushes Kingsley out.

Lead Actress

Viola Davis Details 'Ma Rainey' Transformation: 200 Pounds, Fat Suit |  IndieWire


Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom


2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland

3. Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

5. Kate Winslet – Ammonite

First Two Out:

  • Meryl Streep – The Prom

Supporting Actor

Trial of the Chicago 7 Trailer: Aaron Sorkin Drama Is Oscar Ready |  IndieWire


Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

  • With the Chadwick news and the recent success of Borat 2, SBC is carving a winning path for himself. Might be a double nominee at the Globes.


2. Bill Murray – On the Rocks

3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah – Boseman moving to lead opens up a spot again for Lakeith.

First Two Out

  • Leslie Odom – One Night in Miami
  • David Strathairn – Mank


  • Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Moved to lead.

Supporting Actress

First day of 'Hillbilly Elegy' filming in Middletown was busy


Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy


2. Amanda Seyfired – Mank

3. Olivia Colman – The Father

4. Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

5. Helena Zengel – News of the World

First Two Out:

  • Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
  • Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman


Original Screenplay

First Look at Aaron Sorkin's 'The Trial of the Chicago 7' | Vanity Fair


The Trial of the Chicago 7


2. Mank

3. Soul

4. Minari

5. Judas and the Black Messiah

First Out:

  • On the Rocks
  • Palm Springs – Seems to be more faith than I initially thought. Still not overwhelming, but it is in play.


Adapted Screenplay

Nomadland (film) - Wikipedia




2. The Father

3. One Night in Miami

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. i’m thinking of ending things

First Two Out:

  • News of the World
  • Hillbilly Elegy


What do you think of my picks? Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @ Tberry57!

Jacob is a film critic and co-founder of the Music City Drive-In. He is a member of the Music City Film Critics’ Association and specializes in the awards season. You can find him on Twitter @Tberry57.

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