Every month I will be going through the “above the line” categories at the Oscars and giving my take on who I think will win, who will be nominated, and who are the first two out.
The Nominees are all in alphabetical order.
New Entry
Moved Up
Moved Down
Lock for Nomination
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Winner:
Nominees:
- The Father
- Hillbilly Elegy
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Mank
- Minari
- News of the World
- Nomadland
- Golden Lion, TIFF People’s Choice
- Soul
First Two Out:
- One Night in Miami
- Da 5 Bloods
Removed:
- Dune
- Dune pushed to late 2021.
Director

Winner:
- David Fincher – Mank
Nominees:
- Paul Greengrass – News of the World
- Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Florian Zeller – The Father
- Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
First Two Out:
- Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah
- Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy
Removed:
- Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
- West Side Story pushed to 2021.
- Dennis Villeneuve – Dune
- Dune pushed to late 2021.
Lead Actor

Winner:
- Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Nominees:
- Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
- Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
- Gary Oldman – Mank
- Steven Yeun – Minari
First Two Out:
- Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
- Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lead Actress

Winner:
- Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Nominees:
- Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
- Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Jennifer Hudson – Respect
- Kate Winslet – Ammonite
First Two Out:
- Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
- Jessie Buckley – i’m thinking of ending things
Supporting Actor
Winner:
- Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nominees:
- Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Bill Murray – On the Rocks
- Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Two Out:
- Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah
- Tom Pelphrey – Mank
Removed:
- Jeremy Strong – The Trial of the Chicago 7
- After seeing the movie, Strong doesn’t get much of the meat. He is very good in the role he is given, but this isn’t an Oscar role at all.
Supporting Actress

Winner:
- Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Nominees:
- Olivia Colman – The Father
- Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite
- Amanda Seyfired – Mank
- Helena Zengel – News of the World
First Two Out:
- Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
- Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman
Removed:
- Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
- West Side Story pushed to 2021.
Original Screenplay

Winner:
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nominees:
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Right now going with something that seems to have more meat than what I have heard from On the Rocks.
- Mank
- Minari
- Soul
First Out:
- Promising Young Woman
- On the Rocks
- Hearing that the script might be too light and not daring enough. Still have it close, but it is moving down quickly.
Removed:
- Palm Springs
- It’s a fun thought, but Palm Springs likely won’t make it into the Oscars time loop unless Writing Branches and Critics Group show enough love.
Adapted Screenplay

Winner:
- Nomadland
Nominees:
- The Father
- i’m thinking of ending things
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- One Night in Miami
First Two Out:
- News of the World
- Hillbilly Elegy
Removed:
- Dune
- Dune pushed to late 2021.
What do you think of my picks? Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @ Tberry57!
Jacob is a film critic and co-founder of the Music City Drive-In. He is a member of the Music City Film Critics’ Association and specializes in the awards season. You can find him on Twitter @Tberry57.