Every month I will be going through the “above the line” categories at the Oscars and giving my take on who I think will win, who will be nominated, and who are the first two out.

The Nominees are all in alphabetical order.

Moved Up

Moved Down

Lock for Nomination

Picture

Winner:

• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nominees:

First Two Out:

• One Night in Miami

• Da 5 Bloods

Removed:

• Dune
  • Dune pushed to late 2021.

Director

Winner:

• David Fincher – Mank

Nominees:

• Paul Greengrass – News of the World

• Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Florian Zeller – The Father

• Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

First Two Out:

• Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah

• Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy

Removed:

• Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
  • West Side Story pushed to 2021.
• Dennis Villeneuve – Dune
  • Dune pushed to late 2021.

Lead Actor

Winner:

• Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Nominees:

• Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

• Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

• Gary Oldman – Mank

• Steven Yeun – Minari

First Two Out:

• Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

• Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Lead Actress

Winner:

• Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Nominees:

• Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

• Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

• Jennifer Hudson – Respect

• Kate Winslet – Ammonite

First Two Out:

• Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

• Jessie Buckley – i’m thinking of ending things

Supporting Actor

Winner:

• Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Nominees:

• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Bill Murray – On the Rocks
  • Confirmed on Twitter by Clayton Davis of Variety

• Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

First Two Out:

• Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

• Tom Pelphrey – Mank

Removed:

• Jeremy Strong – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • After seeing the movie, Strong doesn’t get much of the meat. He is very good in the role he is given, but this isn’t an Oscar role at all.

Supporting Actress

Winner:

• Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Nominees:

• Olivia Colman – The Father

• Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

• Amanda Seyfired – Mank

• Helena Zengel – News of the World

First Two Out:

• Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

• Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

Removed:

• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
  • West Side Story pushed to 2021.

Original Screenplay

Winner:

• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nominees:

• Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Right now going with something that seems to have more meat than what I have heard from On the Rocks.

• Mank

• Minari

• Soul

First Out:

• Promising Young Woman

• On the Rocks
  • Hearing that the script might be too light and not daring enough. Still have it close, but it is moving down quickly.

Removed:

• Palm Springs
  • It’s a fun thought, but Palm Springs likely won’t make it into the Oscars time loop unless Writing Branches and Critics Group show enough love.

Adapted Screenplay

Winner:

• Nomadland

Nominees:

• The Father

• i’m thinking of ending things

• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

• One Night in Miami

First Two Out:

• News of the World

• Hillbilly Elegy

Removed:

• Dune
  • Dune pushed to late 2021.

What do you think of my picks? Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @ Tberry57!

Jacob is a film critic and co-founder of the Music City Drive-In. He is a member of the Music City Film Critics’ Association and specializes in the awards season. You can find him on Twitter @Tberry57.

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