We’ve reached the Conference Championship Games. We’re down to four teams in two games to decide who makes the Super Bowl. We have both top seeds, a No. 2 seed, and arguably the best of the Wild Cards in the Los Angeles Rams. But who wins this weekend? Let’s dive in!

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots (14-3) at Denver Broncos (14-3)
Line: Patriots -5.5
About: When does a win feel like a loss? Probably when you lose your quarterback despite advancing. That’s what happened to the Denver Broncos on Saturday. They outlasted the Buffalo Bills to make the Championship game, at home. But Bo Nix broke his ankle on one of the final plays, meaning he’s out for the rest of the season. The Patriots, meanwhile, outlasted the Texans and roll into Denver as favorites. That makes sense given the Nix injury, but history isn’t on the Patriots’ side. Denver has been a house of horrors for the Patriots in the post-season, even when they had Tom Brady. In fact, they haven’t won there. Could it be different on Sunday? On paper, the Patriots are the easy pick. But there is something about this Broncos team and Head Coach Sean Payton. He has had them winning seemingly impossible games. Nix was a part of that, but it was a full team effort. It will take a full team effort on Sunday, too, behind backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Maybe it’s the fan in me, but I still believe.
The Pick: Broncos

NFC Championship Game

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
Line: Seahawks -2.5
About: The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC is going through the NFC West. That’s certainly been true for the top-seeded Seahawks. They had to outlast the Rams and 49ers late in the season to get the No. 1 overall seed. Then, they had to dispatch the 49ers in the Divisional Round to host the Conference Championship. Now, they have to try and beat the Rams and Matthew Stafford, again. The two matchups during the season between the Rams and Seahawks were great. The Rams won by two points in Seattle, then the Seahawks returned the favor, winning by a point in Los Angeles to push themselves toward the No. 1 seed. It was hardly a clean win, but it was a win. Now, the Rams come in with all their weapons looking to win a third straight road playoff game. The Seahawks, meanwhile, will have to do it without Zach Charbonnet, who tore his ACL last week. But Kenneth Walker looked great, rushing for 116 yards and three touchdowns, so it’s unlikely offense will be a problem. These two teams feel evenly matched. The Seahawks are favored, but it feels like anyone’s game. It comes down to whether you believe in Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay or Sam Darnold and Mike McDonald more.
The Pick: Rams

Last Week: 4-0
Season: 179-101

Matthew Fox is a graduate of the Radio, Television and Film program at Biola University, and a giant nerd. He spends his free time watching movies, TV, and obsessing about football. He is a member of the FSWA. You can find him @knighthawk7734 on Twitter and as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast.