With the fall festival season here, that means only one thing: the Oscars and awards race is starting to heat up. As we did last year, my podcast partner at Awards Central, Benji, and I are going to ramp up our thoughts on the podcast but also via articles on our awards predictions. From Critics Choice to Golden Globes to the Oscars, we will be covering predictions all season long. Today, we share our predictions of the Best Actor race updated in January 2026.

We have films from Paul Thomas Anderson, Guillermo del Toro, Chloe Zhao, Kathryn Bigelow, Josh Safdie, and Ryan Coogler set to ramp up the award season. Within those films, we have some star power that could feature many first-time nominees, but also some faces of the past ready to secure another nomination. 

2026 Oscar Best Actor Predictions

Ricky’s Best Actor Predictions

1. Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme 
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another 
3. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners 
5. Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams

Benji’s Best Actor Predictions

1. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another 
2. Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme 
3. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners 
5. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Other Prospects: Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine, Brendan Fraser – Rental Family, Jesse Plemons – Bugonia, Will Arnett—Is This Thing On?