The 2023 NFL Season officially begins on Thursday night. Since 2002, the NFL has held its kickoff game Thursday leading into the first weekend. Since 2004, it’s mostly featured the reigning Super Bowl Champion.

That will be the case this year as the Chiefs play host to the Detroit Lions. And if history is any guide, the game heavily favors the Chiefs. Since 2004, only three reigning Super Bowl champions have failed to get the opening night victory.

The first was the New York Giants in 2012, who lost a 24-17 game to the rival Dallas Cowboys. The second was a year later, when the Baltimore Ravens were unable to open at home. Instead, they traveled to Denver, a team they beat in dramatic fashion the prior January. This time Peyton Manning was ready, tossing seven touchdowns in a win.

The final was last year, as the Rams opened the season against the Buffalo Bills. Little did we know opening night, but the Rams were about to have a rough season. They dropped the opening game 31-10 in a contest that didn’t really feel that close.

The Chiefs seem like they are better poised to defend their title. But they face a Lions team that finished 2022 hot, beating Green Bay in Green Bay to end the Aaron Rodgers era there and finish 9-8. The Lions come into the season with a weight of expectations, but this will be a tough battle.

In terms of fantasy, being Week 1, you have most all your options available. (Apologies to those rostering Jonathan Taylor.) So, it’s fair to be a bit discerning. For the Lions, I’m firing up Amon-Ra St. Brown, who I think will be a WR1 this season. I’m also firing up Jahmyr Gibbs, an explosive rookie player. I’m being more cautious with David Montgomery until we see the splits. But, depending on roster, you could need him. I’m not throwing Sam LaPorta or Marvin Jones out in my lineup in Week 1. The most curious case is Jared Goff. I like him in season-long, but his home-road splits can’t be ignored. You might still need him in Superflex, but if you have an option, you like better this might not be an incredible week to start him.

For the Chiefs, I’m starting Patrick Mahomes. I know Travis Kelce is out, but Mahomes will be OK. I also like Jerrick McKinnon and Isaih Pacheco as flex options. What I’m steering clear of is the wide receivers. Someone will be good, but I want a few weeks of data before I make a commitment. If I have to take a shot, I’m leaning toward Skyy Moore. I’m also not rolling the dice on Noah Gray. It’s Week 1, you have better TE options even with Kelce out.

Overall, it should be a heck of a game and it’s fun the NFL is back. Now, on to my weekly picks!

NFL Picks, Week 1

Chiefs Over Lions
Falcons Over Panthers
Bengals Over Browns
Jaguars Over Colts
Vikings Over Buccaneers
Saints Over Titans
49ers Over Steelers
Commanders Over Cardinals
Ravens Over Texans
Bears Over Packers
Broncos Over Raiders
Chargers Over Dolphins
Eagles Over Patriots
Seahawks Over Rams
Cowboys Over Giants
Bills Over Jets

Matthew Fox is a graduate of the Radio, Television and Film program at Biola University, and a giant nerd. He spends his free time watching movies, TV, and obsessing about football. He is a member of the FSWA. You can find him @knighthawk7734 on Twitter and as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast.