Analysing Possibilities for the 2023 PGA Awards

The Producers Guild of America awards take place on 26^th February and tension is hi….. GOTCHA! Yeah, I think we’re all settled on ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ winning the big prize, ridding that wave all the way to the Academy Awards. However, I think we may be jumping to conclusions a tad too quickly. I still think there are some paths (though unlikely) for other contenders to rise and surprise come the night. Here are some potential ways the PGA’s could go.

We all look into it too much and ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ just wins

This is the most likely scenario. With a DGA and Critics Choice Best Picture win on it’s belt, the ship seems to be sailing this way. Some may say it’s lack of love at BAFTA shows weakness, whilst I think this proves it may not be as overwhelmingly loved as some say it is, I wouldn’t take this as seriously as others would as ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ and ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ were always going to show deep love by the BAFTA’s as a way of showing off the European movies have been the big awards movies of the year and also helps give them a boost, very much like the years of ‘The King’s Speech’, ‘Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri’ (yes, it’s British) and ‘1917’.

I know some will hate me for bringing this up but I think this is where the preferential ballot will truly show it’s power. It’s true EEAAO is a love it, hate it movie. Whilst more people love it, there is always going to be voters who hate the fact the fronter is what it is and will go out of their way to change this. Many will have it right at the bottom of their list. It’ll really be a battle of the voters of love it vs. the voters who hate it. However, I think the likely scenario is EEAAO will get enough number one votes, supported by a handful of two’s and three’s in order to triumph.

‘Top Gun: Maverick’ gets all the love from producers

I’m really encouraging others to consider this more heavily. I’m not saying predict it, but don’t close the door to the idea of something else winning. Don’t make the same mistakes we have other years. “‘Boyhood’ is too loved and has too much respect around it’s craft to lose PGA”, “’CODA’ is too indie to win at PGA’”, is a couple examples where we have underestimated the number 2 way too much.

TGM IS the number 2 IF there is one and I stand by that. ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ would have peaked at BAFTA if it was going to peak, I’d be stunned at this point if it was able to gain momentum again. I know others wouldn’t like me for saying this but I actually don’t think ‘The Fabelmans’ is fully dead. It has Golden Globe Picture and Director and let’s face it, DGA and CC were never going to go with Spielberg. They value movies more for their level of craft, hence the love for EEAAO in their respective ceremonies. Then there’s ‘Top Gun: Maverick’, the movie that Spielberg states as ‘saving Hollywood’s ass!’. There is still deep love and passion left for this movie ESPECIALLY with producers. It saved Hollywood when we expected it least but needed it the most. PGA voters will be thinking this with that passion and love in their belly when they check off their ballot. TGM more then any movie will be the one floating at the 2 and 3 position on ballots, a very strong place to be if it stays consistent across most ballots.

‘The Fabelmans’ has a resurgence

As mentioned, I don’t think Spielberg’s most personal is dead, just yet at least. I don’t have a lot to say about this except it’s a number 3-4 contender with a lot of heart and sometimes voters can be swayed by this, just think to last years ‘CODA’ upset.

Head and heart is something voters have a constant struggle with. Do they go with the most groundbreaking and original nominee, ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’, or do they go with the other loved movie that saved cinema, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’. OR, do they just throw that out the window and go with the heartfelt coming of age movie about falling in love with cinema (something all the voters will relate to), ‘The Fabelmans’. EEAAO may have the lead but it’s not a done deal yet, I guess the true front runner will reveal itself on the night…

Here are my ranked predictions for the 2023 Producers Guild of America award for Best Picture:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

3. The Fabelmans (Universal)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

5. Elvis (Warner Bros.)

6. TÁR (Focus Features)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (20^th Century Fox)

8. The Whale (A24)

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney/Marvel)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)