Zero-RB Dynasty Superflex Top 100

The role of a zero-RB or structural approach is to mitigate and capitalize on the chaos present in an NFL season. The more chaos affects your league, the stronger and more valuable your roster will become. These rankings are designed with appropriate weight towards maintaining stability at the top of a draft and leveraging value and upside at lower cost as the draft progresses. Goals in team construction should revolve around rostering assets with the following mentalities: elite production potential (near the top at their position) and increasing or maintaining value.

Top 24

	Ov. Rank	Pos. Rank	Player
	1	QB1	Patrick Mahomes
	2	QB2	Josh Allen
	3	QB3	Joe Burrow
	4	QB4	Jalen Hurts
	5	QB5	Justin Herbert
	6	QB6	Trevor Lawrence
	7	WR1	Justin Jefferson
	8	WR2	Ja’Maar Chase
	9	QB7	Justin Fields
	10	QB8	Lamar Jackson
	11	QB9	Kyler Murray
R1	12	QB10	Dak Prescott
R2	13	WR3	AJ Brown
	14	23RK PICK	1.01
	15	QB11	DeShaun Watson
	16	WR4	CeeDee Lamb
	17	WR5	Jaylen Waddle
	18	23RK PICK	1.02
	19	23RK PICK	1.03
	20	WR6	Amon-Ra St. Brown
	21	WR7	Garret Wilson
	22	WR8	Chris Olave
	23	WR9	Tee Higgins
	24	QB12	Tua Tagovailoa

Gameplan

Roster players with the greatest combination of peak performance and high value floor to anchor your team.

Where Can it Backfire?

The assumption is that fantasy manager are able to identify players that fit the above performance and value parameters. Performance is the biggest threat! Garret Wilson, Chris Olave, Tua Tagovailoa and the rookie picks have yet to produce for the same sustained duration as others within the Top 24. The players have shown flashes of elite production but do not have the sustained proof at the professional level. An argument can be made that they do have a high degree of value insulation. High draft capital WRs with great year one production are unlikely to lose significant value until after year three, which gives them multiple opportunities to demonstrate sustained performance. Unlike Ja’Maar Chase and Justin Jefferson, who emerged as incredible WRs with elite production in year one, other recent historical examples include Jaylen Waddle (perhaps could have been included with Chase and Jefferson), DJ Moore, AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins and Deebo Samuel, all of whom had strong values entering year two and continued to demonstrate high performance and solidify value by the end of year three. Counterpoints could include players such as Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Claypool, Laviska Shenault and Elijah Moore. Sutton’s injury certainly played a significant factor, while the remaining players were not nearly as highly valued entering year two as the preceding list. Current players like Christian Watson, George Pickens and Jahan Dotson appear aligned with the secondary group above, not getting nearly the same appraisal but lingering in a range where their values can jump or plummet with relative ease.

25-48

	25	RB1	Breece Hall
	26	RB2	Jonathan Taylor
	27	WR10	DK Metcalf
	28	WR11	Tyreek Hill
	29	RB3	Kenneth Walker
	30	WR12	Stefon Diggs
	31	RB4	Christian McCaffrey
	32	RB5	Travis Etienne Jr
	33	TE1	Kyle Pitts
	34	TE2	Mark Andrews
	35	RB6	Saquon Barkley
R3	36	23RK PICK	1.04
R4	37	23RK PICK	1.05
	38	QB13	Trey Lance
	39	WR13	Cooper Kupp
	40	WR14	Davante Adams
	41	WR15	DeVonta Smith
	42	WR16	Drake London
	43	WR17	Deebo Samuel
	44	WR18	Christian Watson
	45	RB7	Najee Harris
	46	RB8	D’Andre Swift
	47	QB14	Daniel Jones
	48	23RK PICK	1.06

Gameplan

There is more uncertainty present, thus one should maximize scoring potential at the risk of age-related value degradation or fortify assets that have less overt paths to high upside but with a reasonable value floor. A third option is to combine both, bearing in mind the team structure through two rounds.

Where Can it Backfire?

This is likely the last opportunity to select an RB with overall RB1 potential (Austin Ekeler and even Josh Jacobs pose as caveats to this assumption). When passing on RB in this range you must continue to resist the possibility of taking them through the next several rounds (rookie picks notwithstanding) as this truly enters a void with limited upside opportunities and significant value depreciation. The dilemma is that there are combinations of elite and younger backs within this 25-48 range but they have added factors of uncertainty: age (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley), health (all RBs) and capacity for volume (Travis Etienne, D’Andre Swift). These players are much more suitable to a roster when two to three foundational pieces are already in place, however, market pricing will likely push several of them into the Top 24 making them untenable at cost.

49-72

	49	23RK PICK	1.07
	50	TE3	Travis Kelce
	51	TE4	TJ Hockenson
	52	WR19	Chris Godwin
	53	WR20	DJ Moore
	54	WR21	Terry McLaurin
	55	RB9	Javonte Williams
	56	RB10	Austin Ekeler
	57	RB11	Josh Jacobs
	58	RB12	JK Dobbins
	59	WR22	Treylon Burks
R5	60	WR23	Jameson Williams
R6	61	WR24	Michael Pittman Jr
	62	WR25	Marquise Brown
	63	QB15	Jared Goff
	64	QB16	Kirk Cousins
	65	QB17	Russell Wilson
	66	RB13	Rhamondre Stevenson
	67	23RK PICK	1.08
	68	23RK PICK	1.09
	69	QB18	Kenny Pickett
	70	QB19	Derek Carr
	71	QB20	Geno Smith
	72	WR26	Diontae Johnson

Gameplan

Embrace uncertainty. There are few players remaining without significant questions to their production profile and future value. Use other managers “certainty” to your advantage when presented with the opportunity. The best accounting for uncertainty is to increase the amount of paths that could lead to certainty. WR and RB skill players no longer have realistic upside to the elite tiers within their position. This gives credence to even the mid-late rookie picks as great opportunities because elite production is still within their range of outcomes, albeit unlikely nonetheless.

Where Can it Backfire?

Travis Kelce continues to separate from the rest of the TEs with astounding production. The expectation of production decline with age is what holds Kelce in this range, but perhaps his mortality curve is a graceful outlier. Similarly, can Austin Ekeler continue to maintain health and production at his age? There are also good-not-great producers at WR (DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin and Marquise Brown) that leave you wondering of the likelihood for a Stefon Diggs career arc. Whether they reach that pinnacle or not, they seem to have several years of production left buoying their value as it dips steadily at an Amari Cooper-esque pace. The QBs available do not present with much upside but more stability and liquidity. The middling QB and rookie pick are the most liquid assets because the value is stable and the cost is not entirely prohibitive. While not drastically altering your win probability directly, loading up on QBs here may provide smoother transitions to alternative assets.

73-100

	73	QB21	Matt Stafford
	74	TE5	Dallas Goedert
	75	TE6	George Kittle
	76	TE7	Pat Freiermuth
	77	WR27	Brandon Aiyuk
	78	WR28	Jahan Dotson
	79	WR29	George Pickens
	80	23RK PICK	1.10
	81	RB14	Dameon Pierce
	82	RB15	Joe Mixon
	83	RB16	Tony Pollard
R7	84	RB17	Nick Chubb
R8	85	23RK PICK	1.11
	86	23RK PICK	1.12
	87	23RK PICK	2.01
	88	QB22	Aaron Rodgers
	89	WR30	Jerry Jeudy
	90	WR31	Christian Kirk
	91	WR32	Rashod Bateman
	92	RB18	Derrick Henry
	93	RB19	James Cook
	94	RB20	Cam Akers
	95	RB21	Aaron Jones
	96	RB22	AJ Dillon
R9	97	QB23	Desmond Ridder
	98	RB22	Raschaad White
	99	RB23	Isaiah Pacheco
	100	RB24	David Montgomery

Gameplan

Grasping at straws of upside, continued QB value and the beginning of replaceable parts. No single pick will win your league, but rather your network of picks. Any advantages herein are available through thin margins and attachment is unwarranted. Prepare to transition players through this range quickly for alternative assets or clarify their role within your team structure. Rookie picks in this range are almost assuredly better options than players as they’re likely on par with the available talent but with a fresh clock.

Where Can it Succeed?

This is a range where there is finally room for upside to take hold. The cost of these picks are substantially cheaper and starting to become a glob of middling production, age and presumed talent. In these rounds you need to accept your strikeout rate is high, but the benefit of a big hit can more than make-up for two to three duds. Depending on the position, it may just be the perception of the result that you need to adjust. AJ Dillon appears stuck behind Aaron Jones yet again, however, the strength of Dillon as an investment is the standalone flex value in a committee and the price inflation if Jones were to miss time. George Pickens’ value is admittedly deflated in this rank and it is highly unlikely he would be available this late, but I believe this is the range where his polar outcomes (as discussed) are acceptably priced. In contrast, Desmond Ridder is priced well above market in this rank. Ridder has and admittedly difficult road ahead to be a successful NFL QB, but he has a talent set that leaves the door open for QB1 outcomes. The rookie season is already behind Ridder and the opening for maturation is taking hold. There is still opportunity for Atlanta to bring in another QB, but the path toward a starting role is currently unfettered. A swing and miss at the cost of an early second round rookie pick is worth the minor potential of breaching the QB1 group and the future valuation of a second round start-up pick.

Three Starting Variations

		Early			Middle			Late
Rd	Pos Rank	Player	Rd	Pos Rank	Player	Rd	Pos Rank	Player
1	QB2	Josh Allen	1	WR1	Justin Jefferson	1	QB9	Kyler Murray
2	WR7	Garret Wilson	2	WR5	Jaylen Waddle	2	QB10	Dak Prescott
3	WR10	DK Metcalf	3	TE1	Kyle Pitts	3	23RK PICK	1.04
4	23RK PICK	1.06	4	RB7	Najee Harris	4	23RK PICK	1.05
5	23RK PICK	1.07	5	WR20	DJ Moore	5	WR22	Treylon Burks
6	QB19	Derek Carr	6	QB22	Matt Stafford	6	WR25	Marquise Brown
7	WR28	Jahan Dotson	7	WR26	Diontae Johnson	7	23RK PICK	1.10
8	QB23	Desmond Ridder	8	QB22	Aaron Rodgers	8	23RK PICK	1.11

Jason Astarita (@AstaritaJason) is a graduate of Southern New Hampshire University with an MS in Psychology (Industrial and Organizational), having completed his undergraduate degree in Psychology at the University of San Diego. His passion for fantasy sports is over a decade old, but has been focused on superflex dynasty and bestball/dynasty hybrids.