Reference: BFCA, “CC” (Broadcast Film Critics Association) – GG (Golden Globes) – SAG (Screen Actors Guild)
- 1 – Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, SAG
- 2 – Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG
- 3 – Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG but in Lead, SAG
- 4 – Olivia Colman in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BFCA, GG, SAG
- 5 – Amanda Seyfried in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG
Man it feels good to live in a world where I can say it looks like Yuh-Jung Youn is going to win the Oscar. After a surprise loss at the CC, she prevailed at where people thought was least likely, the SAG awards, an organisation previously known for snubbing foreign and indie films, but then again, maybe ‘Parasite’ winning ensemble last year showed that they’ve changed as an organisation, but then I think they gave ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’ the cast ensemble award this year, weird. She also has the support of BAFTA behind her, so I’d say it’s pretty locked at this point. I can’t see Maria Bakalova winning when she only has CC with a performance so unconventional, and GG winner Jodie Foster isn’t even nominated here.
Some will say Bakalova is the runner up, I disagree, I think it is Glenn Close. After her tragic loss to Olivia Colman in 2018, it was deemed her next nomination will be her next win. Though she has the nomination, ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ has been so critically panned I don’t think any award bodies have had the guts to start the “let’s get Glenn Close an Oscar” train, albeit that’s what was attempted last time and it didn’t work, though it must of been EXTREMELY close.
Amanda Seyfried has been an interesting one. She was the front runner for so long and that only really ended when she was snubbed for the SAG. Interesting thing is, she fits the supporting actress category so well, a 1930’s Hollywood princess who is the heart of the film, very much like Kim Basinger in ‘L.A. Confidential’. Problem with Seyfried’s character is that many look at it and say “she’s doing nothing”, I’d disagree. She subtly portrays Marion Davies, a person known for being an interesting character, and whenever a person is interesting, it most likely means they’re layered and would be hard to perform. Seyfried makes you forget she isn’t Davies and that is the art of her performance, just being able to make you think she could be her. Many swapped her out for Jodie Foster as Foster won the GG. It seemed pretty obvious to me that it was the GG sucking up to a big star and without any other nominations, I was comfortable with swapping her out for Seyfried as my number five spot.