FINAL Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

ReferenceBFCA (Broadcast Film Critics Association) – GG (Golden Globes) – PGA (Producers Guild Awards) – SAG (Screen Actors Guild, Ensemble)

  • 1 –  Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTABFCAGG, PGA – Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers
  • 2 –  The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, SAG – Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers 
  • 3 – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG – Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers
  • 4 – Minari (A24) – SAG, PGA – Christina Oh, Producer
  • 5 – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, GG – David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
  • 6 – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – PGA – Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
  • 7 – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – PGA – Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers
  • 8 – Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG – Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers

*Winners in bold.

What a year ladies and gents. It’s been tough. Locked down country, some uncertain on when they’ll get their next payslip, people dying, families and friends departed. But, we all came together spiritually over one thing, our love for movies and awards season. Before I discuss my predictions for Best Picture, I need to thank all of the nominees and everyone behind them for not just saving this years awards season, but helping save the movies of last year. We may moan about your films and never seen happy, but we are truly grateful for the effort you all put in.

Into the predictions, much like I’m sure you are, I am predicting ‘Nomadland’ to win the big prize. It has swept the season not just in the critics circles, but also at all the big ceremonies, except SAG (we’ll get to that). After ‘Parasite’ winning Best Picture last year, a ‘Nomadland’ win will just double down on the idea that the Academy are changing and that we can look forward to a future of worthy Best Picture winners.

However, I’m worried. ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’ is right there to steal the award from ‘Nomadland’ and I think it is more likely then people think. First things first, ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’ is loved by the actors branch, which is the biggest branch out of the whole Academy. Just when people thought it was dipping and ‘Minari’ could win, ‘Trial won SAG ensemble where ‘Nomadland’ wasn’t even nominated, and it’s not like there isn’t an ensemble that you can make a case for why a nomination is deserved.

I’m also worried about ‘Promising Young Woman’ in screenplay. I can’t see PYW taking Best Picture, so its screenplay win won’t mean much in that regard. ‘Trial has only won the GG for its screenplay, most likely because Aaron Sorkin is their favourite boy, and if it wins the Oscar, especially if it’s on top of a best editing win, then I’ll be worried. Though its not an Academy rule, it’s really important to have a screenplay and/or director win in order to win Best Picture, and ‘Trial winning here will show strong competition. ‘Green Book’ won Original Screenplay where it only won at the GG and it went on to win the Oscar, albeit it did have the PGA on its belt as well.

Perhaps I’m just being paranoid. Usually you need some sort of formula to upset Best Picture. SAG ensemble, ACE Eddie and WGA is a strong one, both ‘Crash’ and ‘Parasite’ won all these (though ‘Trial is close with just missing WGA), or at least have just a PGA win like ‘Green Book’. ‘Nomadland’ losing here would be a ‘Brokeback Mountain’ vs. ‘Crash’ level loss. It has swept the season and as long as the Academy don’t go rouge, I think it is winning the Oscar.

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