FINAL Oscar Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

ReferenceBFCA (Broadcast Film Critics Association) – GG (Golden Globes) – USC (University of Southern California Awards) – WGA (Writers Guild Awards)

  • 1 – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG (WGA ineligible) – Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
  • 2 – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, USC (WGA ineligible) – Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
  • 3 – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – WGA – Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
  • 4 – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA , USC, WGA – Screenplay by Kemp Powers 
  • 5 – The White Tiger (Netflix) – WGA – Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

I’m having a massive conflict in my brain over this category. Do they Academy go with the Best Picture front runner, or do they go with film that relies on it’s screenplay more to tell the story. It could honestly go either which way and both would be a sensible decision, but I’m going to give the edge to ‘The Father’.

I’ve said all along that BAFTA are the mostly likely to give ‘The Father’ Adapted Screenplay and that if it does, it’ll be enough to change my prediction to it, and that has indeed happened. The only hesitation for me putting ‘The Father’ at number one is that it is based on a play which rarely wins Adapted Screenplay when made into a film. However, sometimes a coincidence is a coincidence and I don’t think the Academy have any spite towards screenplays adapted from plays, so I’m not going to let this get to me too much.

The thing that is frustrating about predicting in this category is that neither front runners were eligible for the WGA. If they were and we had the winner there it would be so much easier to predict as WGA, usually, goes with the Oscars nicely. ‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’ won the WGA but there is no way on gods earth that we’ll see a film like it win at the Oscars, especially in screenplay.

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