Reference: BFCA, “CC” (Broadcast Film Critics Association) – GG (Golden Globes) – SAG (Screen Actors Guild)
- 1 – Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
- 2 – Anthony Hopkins in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
- 3 – Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
- 4 – Steven Yeun in Minari (A24) – BFCA, SAG
- 5 – Gary Oldman in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG
With Actress I can at least accept it’s up in the air and that the winner will be hard to predict, but Actor is driving me insane, do they go with late Chadwick Boseman or do they go with Anthony Hopkins?!
It can honestly be either of them. I don’t really care that Hopkins only has BAFTA, Olivia Colman only had Comedy/Musical GG and BAFTA lead before winning the Oscar, and Mark Rylance and Tilda Swinton both also just won the Oscar before going on to win the Oscar, and they’re all British, just like Hopkins, so whilst I agree to an extent British biased has something to do with Hopkins win, I don’t think it’s fully got to do with that and I don’t think it makes his BAFTA win meaningless for his Oscar potential. Not only that, from what I’ve heard from people in general and from the anonymous ballots, it has nothing to do with Boseman personally, many just think Hopkins genuinely gives the better performance and that they think the best deserves to win, dead or alive.
Turning over to the case of how Boseman can win, he did sadly pass away and helped change the industry for the better, even giving Sienna Miller money to help balance out the pay between them for ’21 Bridges’, now that’s a nice man if I’ve ever heard of one. He never wanted the limelight on him, he didn’t show off the nice things he’s done and he never wanted people to find out about his cancer, he was just interested in making the world a better place and providing great performances. If they’ve put this across enough during campaigning, voters may feel emotionally conflicted and vote for him otherwise they will feel guilty. Also, this is the last chance to honour Boseman and I can’t see voters wanting to turn down the opportunity. Either which way, this and actress are pretty up in the air and I could change my prediction last minute.
I’d also like to discuss the possibility of neither winning. Back in the 2003 Oscars, people were so dead set on the winner in lead actor being Jack Nicholson for ‘About Schmidt’ or Daniel Day Lewis for ‘There Will Be Blood’ that they completely forgot about how great Adrien Brody is in ‘The Pianist’, and he ended up dark horsing it and won the Oscar. Could the same thing happen with Riz Ahmed? People are raving his performance and he has the Indie Spirit Award in lines up nicely to the Oscars if you’re nominated there as well, so that’s something to have at the back of your mind.