FINAL 2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Ladies and gentlemen, I think it’s fairly safe to say that 2020 was a horrible year! Lockdown after lockdown, deaths piling onto each other, unknowing of when we can see family again. But still, we had a savior in terms of getting us through the year, and that’s movies, especially from streaming services, who now more than ever have had the upper hand against movie studios. Financially, Netflix saw a boom in new subscribers whilst movie studios lost money as the days went on, with no sign of theatres opening on the horizon. Also, this gave them the upper hand when it comes to awards season, and it’s shown! At the Golden Globes, Netflix had a staggering 42 nominations in all categories including TV. Further behind but still with an honorable amount of nominations, Amazon managed to get 10 nominations. So, it would be unwise to think they will be stopping here, and expect to see MANY of their titles pop up along the way, as I go through my FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions.

Best Picture

  • 1 – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
  • 2 – Nomadland (Searchlight)
  • 3 – Minari (A24)
  • 4 – Promising Young Woman (Focus Feature)
  • 5 – Mank (Netflix)
  • 6 – One Night in Miami (Amazon)
  • 7 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
  • 8 – The Father (Sony Pictures Classic)
  • 9 – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Brothers)
  • 10 – The Sound of Metal (Amazon)

I know what you’re all thinking, how in God’s name do I still have ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’ as my number one spot. Look, many think after ‘Nomadland’s’ success at the Golden Globes that it’s a done deal for the Oscars, I disagree. I’d like to take you back a few years when it was Roma vs. Green Book. ‘Roma’ swept every Best Picture award it was eligible for, EXCEPT the Producer’s Guild Awards (PGA), which is where ‘Green Book’ took the surprise win. After this, many people, myself included, were like “well, surely the Oscars will do the right thing”. Nope, ‘Green Book’ prevailed. Looking back in retrospect, ‘Roma’ was a great film, but it lacked the ability to capture many people’s hearts. Not only that, it’s a slow burner and many found it boring. I think the same can happen with ‘Trial vs. Nomadland. I must admit, I like ‘Trial a lot more than I like ‘Nomadland’. Yes, I agree ‘Nomadland is the better Best Picture winner, but I think voters may sway towards the more upbeat film. PGA will be a massive tell for this category, so we’ll have to wait and see.

‘Minari’, ‘Promising Young Woman’ and ‘Mank’ have got in everywhere except BAFTA, (which isn’t saying much, they very much did their own thing) so it would be unwise to bet against them at this point.

‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’ and ‘One Night in Miami’ are both safe picks as they did miss BAFTA and Golden Globes, but have PGA, Critics Choice, and SAG on their side to give it the edge.

Numbers 8, 9 & 10 are all very vulnerable and I can see maybe even just one or none of these three making it in. But, I’d say the most likely is ‘The Father’. It has been getting those brutal snubs at Critics Choice and PGA, but many say that is down to a screener issue, and I can imagine if there is one place that they will be ensuring screeners are seen, it is the Oscars. Plus, it has the support of Golden Globes and BAFTAs. It also (from what I’ve heard, this is the last of the potential nominees I haven’t seen yet) has two VERY strong performances which will probably mean it’ll have the support from the Acting Branch.

‘Judas and the Black Messiah’ has PGA but nothing else, BUT, this could be because of having a screener issue and it shows the momentum has started for that film, so I’m optimistic.

‘Sound of Metal’ feels like the snub. It has PGA and Critics Choice but ‘Judas and the Black Messiah’ feels like a stronger ‘Oscar’ film. However, it has a strong IMDb score (7.8), so there is love for it, we’ll just have to see!

Next in Line

  • 11 – News of the World
  • 12 – Da 5 Bloods
  • 13 – The Mauritanian

Best Director

  • 1 – Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
  • 2 – David Fincher (Mank)
  • 3 – Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
  • 4 – Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
  • 5 – Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Okay, I’m going to stick with Chloe Zhao for now as my number one, NO DOUBT she is getting the nomination. However, I don’t agree with people who say she is safe for the win. Watch out for DGA, because David Fincher could very well win here. This, coincidentally, happened when it was David Fincher vs. Tom Hooper back in 2011. David Fincher, like Zhao, seemed like the for sure winner, he swept, but DGA couldn’t help themselves, and gave it to Tom Hooper for ‘The King’s Speech’. Then, Hooper went on to win the Oscar, in one of the most famous Oscar upsets. This can happen again. ‘Mank’ is the more director-y film, whilst ‘Nomadland’ is the better directed film, so we’ll have to wait and see which way the DGA tilt.

It’s such a joy to welcome Emerald Fennell to the top five. She’s very solidly in. Yes, she was snubbed at the BAFTA’s, but they went wacko this year, so I’m not taking it too seriously. She has Golden Globes, Critics Choice and even DGA, so it makes no sense to think she’s getting snubbed at this point.

I can also carry that joy to Lee Isaac Chung for his remarkable work on ‘Minari’. HOW, can I say no? He has Critics Choice, DGA and even BAFTA, where they went crazy. Yes, I know BAFTA jury voted this category, but it also shows this undying love for Minari.

Aaron Sorkin has everything surprisingly, but I can also see him being snubbed. They snubbed Bradley Cooper, Peter Farrelly (but who cares about that) and famously Ben Affleck, showing a film can be snubbed in this category if it isn’t director-y enough for them.

Honestly, I’d say this is the easiest category to predict.

Next in Line

  • 6 – Regina King (One Night in Miami)
  • 7 – Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods)
  • 8 – Florian Zeller (The Father)
  • 9 – Paul Greengrass (News of the World)

Best Actress

  • 1 – Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
  • 2 – Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
  • 3 – Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
  • 4 – Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
  • 5 – Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)

… I have no idea who the front runner is!

Seriously, both actress categories are crazy this year. Since the Golden Globes, it’s just got more and more crazy.

But, for now, I’ll say Carey Mulligan has the best chances. Her hype doesn’t seem to be dying down, in fact, it just seems to get louder and louder. Sometimes this can work. Just like last year when Bong Joon Ho won Best Director over Sam Mendes. If I’m being honest, I loved ‘Promising Young Woman’, but I’d only say Mulligan is nomination worthy. McDormand is the most deserving in this category, but her character is very emotionally withdrawn which doesn’t coincide well with Oscar chances as the Academy have shown to like more out there performances. Plus, she won a couple of years ago, and I’m not sure if the Academy will award her again so soon.

I’m not sure what to make of Andra Day. She kills it in ‘The United States vs. Billie Holiday’, and I think we will all always remember her shocker win at the Golden Globes, but she wasn’t nominated for SAG and didn’t even make the longlist for BAFTA, let alone get nominated. But, she does have the Golden Globe win as well as a Critics Choice nomination, so she is safe for the nomination.

Viola Davis and Vanessa Kirby are both incredible. I’d say they are both just as good as Frances McDormand, in their own way. They are definitely the two most likely for the number 4 and 5 spot, but in terms of winning, I just think that there is too much of a conversation around Carey Mulligan, Frances McDormand and Andra Day that they’ll just get drowned out from the conversation.

Next in Line

  • 6 – Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)
  • 7 – Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead)
  • 8 – Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie)
  • 9 – Rosamund Pike (I Care A Lot)

Best Actor

  • 1 – Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
  • 2 – Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
  • 3 – Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
  • 4 – Gary Oldman (Mank)
  • 5 – Steven Yeun (Minari)

It’s undeniable at this point, we thought Golden Globes and/or Critics Choice would maybe stir things up, but Chadwick Boseman is going all the way. In a year when the top three are equally as good but they’ve won or can win in the future, it only seem right to honour Boseman as it’s their only chance.

Anthony Hopkin’s would be the runner up as he is an acting god and I’ve heard ‘The Father’ features his best performance, but he has won before and if he didn’t even win Golden Globes where he is overdue, then it’s so unlikely for the Oscars. I’ve heard some say that he could win for supporting for ‘Da 5 Bloods’, that way Hopkins can get his Oscar too… nah.

Riz Ahmed kills it in ‘Sound of Metal’ and he’s got in everywhere, so I’m not going to bet against him now.

Many thought that Gary Oldman could be the Robert De Niro in ‘The Irishman’ of this year, getting snubbed place after place, but it seems like that was Delroy Lindo, which is so disappointing for me, he was my personal favourite performance of last year. But, this doesn’t change the fact Oldman has only missed BAFTA (no shocker really), so the odds are looking in his favour…

…but in more positive light, Steven Yeun is looking really strong for a nomination. He has the support of SAG, yes SAG!! If an indie film gets love at SAG, it means it’s a big deal. With the support of Critics Choice as well, he is the obvious number 5.

Next in Line

  • 6 – Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
  • 7 – Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods)
  • 8 – Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

Best Supporting Actress

  • 1 – Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
  • 2 – Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
  • 3 – Olivia Colman (The Father)
  • 4 – Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
  • 5 – Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

I think predicting the nominees for this is easy, but the winner, I’m clueless.

I guess Yuh-Jung Youn is for now the front runner. Yes, I know she didn’t win Critics Choice, but I’d say there is still an opening for her. Without Amanda Seyfried, she has a strong shot at winning SAG, and she can REALLY win at BAFTA’s as there is no Olivia Colman or Glenn Close to challenge her, and this would be a nice combo to win the Oscar.

Some think Glenn Close is done for the nomination, I disagree. Even if she doesn’t get the win, I still think she will be nominated. I honestly think it’s a three way race between her, Yuh-Jung Youn and Maria Bakalova (yes, I know she is my number 5, we’ll get to her). ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ is a very mediocre film, but Glenn Close is the gem for sure. If Glenn Close had won a few years ago for ‘The Wife’ I’d be in a different mind set on what I think her odds are, but I think that loss helps her here greatly.

Olivia Colman is the comfortable number three. I’ve heard she is more of a lead being campaigned in supporting, and if she is as strong as I hear, this will strongly help her as she is loved anyway, but if her performance is this strong, it will be so easy for her to get into supporting. I was thinking, she was number three in the odds for her performance in ‘The Favourite’ before going on to win the Oscar. Can history repeat itself?

Amanda Seyfried is a weird one. At first she seemed like the obvious number one, but now she doesn’t even seem 100% safe for the nomination, SAG’s proved this. I can’t even explain this. I agree she isn’t win worthy but nomination worthy, yes. I think that SAG snub says there isn’t as much passion behind her as we thought, as well as her not winning the Golden Globe.

Yes, I know, Bakalova is my number 5 even though she is the only one of these actresses to get nominated at the big precursors. This is where I stand with Bakalova’s performance. She’s great, she deserves the nomination. But, the Academy can be extremely snooty towards genre roles, therefore I can sense a crazy snub. Every year there is always one that gets nominated everywhere but misses the Oscar nom. Bakalova seems like the most likely. But, if she does get the nomination, I’ll agree she has a strong shot at winning as she won Critics Choice and they’ve successfully predicted the Oscar winner since 2003!

Next in Line

  • 6 – Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
  • 7 – Helena Zengel (News of the World)
  • 8 – Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)
  • 9 – Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Best Supporting Actor

  • 1 – Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
  • 2 – Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
  • 3 – Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
  • 4 – Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
  • 5 – Alan Kim (Minari)

Daniel Kaluuya is winning. Some people are worried Cohen could take the SAG and lead to an Oscar, but I think not. We have had hopeful winners that we want to win the SAG that haven’t (Richard E. Grant in ‘Can You Ever Forgive Me?’), but I can’t remember a time we were expecting a winner that didn’t happen that anyone was upset about, so I can’t see it changing now, especially with how good Kaluuya is!

Leslie Odom, Jr. is just gonna happen folks, not that I think anyone will be disappointed. I think it’s a shame we can’t live in a world where Kingsley Ben-Adir gets nominated as I’d say he is equally as good, but it doesn’t change the fact we are going to get one of the ‘One Night in Miami’ boys in and I can’t say it isn’t deserved. Odom, Jr. will be the Lady Gaga of this year where one of the stars of the film gets nominated in both acting and song, most likely winning song.

BAFTA was enough for me to think Paul Raci has just enough to get in. I know he missed Golden Globes and SAG, but I just can’t see Jared Leto or even Chadwick Boseman getting more votes then him, call me biased, but he just does do a better job. I thought BAFTA may be the least likely place to nominated Raci even with 6 spots, so the nominations solidified it for me.

Here is where I get risky, I usually try and play the odds as that’s the best way to ensure you get as many predictions right, but, I genuinely think Alan Kim has a good shot at getting nominated for ‘Minari’. One, he has the love and support from BAFTA; two, he won Critics Choice, and like he hadn’t done already, he stole the hearts of everyone with his emotional speech. A lot of people I know who aren’t film fans were just obsessed with his acceptance speech and I think this will help him. The Critics Choice win was a few days before voting has ended and the BAFTA noms was a day before, so there was time for last minute changes, and you know what, I think some voters may have switched!

Next in Line

  • 6 – Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)
  • 7 – Jared Leto (The Little Things)
  • 8 – Bill Murray (On the Rocks)

Original Screenplay

  • 1 – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • 2 – Promising Young Woman
  • 3 – Mank
  • 4 – Minari
  • 5 – Judas and the Black Messiah

It’s ‘Trial vs. ‘Promising Young Woman’, but I’m giving ‘Trial the edge as how can I have it as number one for Best Picture without having it win screenplay. I know PYW won at the Critics Choice which is very hopeful, Sorkin is tied with her as he has the Golden Globe. Also, I think Sorkin has a better chance of winning the Writer’s Guild Award as they have proven to love Sorkin and it is the more screenplay-ey film.

‘Mank’ is an almost lock. It got BAFTA and Golden Globes and only didn’t get WGA because it wasn’t eligible. Because there hasn’t been much of a campaign around the fact Fincher has adapted his fathers screenplay for the screen to honour him after his death the voters may not care and go “eh, oh well’, but that is me speculating.

‘Minari’ is probably in as there is only one more outside shot in my opinion and seeming as it’s in my top five for Best Picture it only makes sense.

The fifth spot is between ‘Judas and ‘Sound of Metal’, but I’m giving ‘Judas the edge as it’s more likely going to get a Best Picture nomination and ‘Sound of Metal’ isn’t really great because of it’s screenplay, well, except the final Paul Raci scene.

Next in Line

  • 6 – Sound of Metal

Adapted Screenplay

  • 1 – One Night in Miami
  • 2 – Nomadland
  • 3 – The Father
  • 4 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • 5 – The White Tiger

This category has a certain top four then many outside shots for the number five spot.

I’ve gone out on a limb and put ‘One Night in Miami’ in for the win at the Oscars. I’m fairly sure it will win WGA as ‘Nomadland’ isn’t even eligible. I’d say it’s a better screenplay to ‘Nomadland’ and I don’t think ‘Nomadland’ deserves to win as it isn’t even the screenplay that makes it great. Also, the Academy do like to go for the films that have a more noticeable screenplay, such as ‘Jojo Rabbit’ and ‘Parasite’ winning last year. Maybe I’m going off my personal biased, but until I see what wins WGA and BAFTA, I’m going to keep it like this.

‘Ma Rainey and ‘The Father’ are for sure locks. I’d heard ‘The Father’ is a very screenplay-ey film which makes me think it could be the number one instead of ‘One Night in Miami’, but I’m yet to see it so I can’t comment.

Number 5 is tricky. But, I’m going to say ‘The White Tiger’ as it is tied with ‘News of the World’ as the most nominated outside shot, both with a WGA. But, I’m giving ‘Tiger the edge as it is the (in my opinion) better screenplay and I have faith in the Oscars.

Next in Line

  • 6 – News of the World
  • 7 – The Mauritanian
  • 8 – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

At this point ladies & gents I can imagine all the reading is getting tiresome, plus if I explain the rest of my predictions I’ll probably be here until Oscar Nomination morning, so I’ll just leave the rest of my predictions below and if you would like to challenge me, please don’t hesitate to tweet at me @007Guy45.

Cinematography

  • 1 – Nomadland
  • 2 – Mank
  • 3 – News of the World
  • 4 – Minari
  • 5 – Judas and the Black Messiah

Next in Line

  • 6 – Da 5 Bloods
  • 7 – Tenet
  • 8 – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • 9 – Cherry

Costume Design

  • 1 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • 2 – Mank
  • 3 – News of the World
  • 4 – Emma
  • 5 – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Next in Line

  • 6 – Mulan
  • 7 – Personal History of David Copperfield
  • 8 – Emma.

Production Design

  • 1 – Mank
  • 2 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • 3 – News of the World
  • 4 – Emma.
  • 5 – The Midnight Sky

Next in Line

  • 6 – Mulan
  • 7 – The Father
  • 8 – The Personal History of David Copperfield

Editing

  • 1 – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • 2 – Nomadland
  • 3 – Mank
  • 4 – The Father
  • 5 – Promising Young Woman

Next in Line

  • 6 – Sound of Metal
  • 7 – Minari
  • 8 – Judas and the Black Messiah

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • 1 – Hillbilly Elegy
  • 2 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • 3 – Mank
  • 4 – Birds of Prey
  • 5 – Pinocchio

Next in Line

  • 6 – Emma.
  • 7 – Jingle Jangle

Score

  • 1 – Soul
  • 2 – Mank
  • 3 – News of the World
  • 4 – Minari
  • 5 – The Little Things

Next in Line

  • 6 – Tenet
  • 7 – The Midnight Sky

Song

  • 1 – Speak Now (One Night in Miami)
  • 2 – IO SI (The Life Ahead)
  • 3 – Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah)
  • 4 – Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
  • 5 – Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest)

Next in Line

  • 6 – Turntables (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
  • 7 – Wuhan Flu (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

Sound

  • 1 – Sound of Metal
  • 2 – Mank
  • 3 – Tenet
  • 4 – News of the World
  • 5 – The Invisible Man

Next in Line

  • 6 – Greyhound
  • 7 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • 8 – Nomadland
  • 9 – Soul

Visual Effects

  • 1 – Tenet
  • 2 – The Midnight Sky
  • 3 – Mank
  • 4 – Mulan
  • 5 – Welcome to Chechnya

Next in Line

  • 6 – The One and Only Ivan
  • 7 – Birds of Prey

Animated Feature

  • 1 – Soul
  • 2 – Wolfwalkers
  • 3 – Over the Moon
  • 4 – Onward
  • 5 – The Croods: A New Age

Next in Line

  • 6 – Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Documentary

  • 1 – Time
  • 2 – Boys State
  • 3 – Dick Johnson is Dead
  • 4 – Collective
  • 5 – All In: The Fight for Democracy

Next in Line

  • 6 – Crip Camp
  • 7 – Welcome to Chechnya

International Feature Film

  • 1 – Another Round
  • 2 – Quo Vadis, Aida?
  • 3 – Collective
  • 4 – La Llorona
  • 5 – Two of Us

Animated Short Film

  • 1 – If Anything Happens I Love You
  • 2 – Out
  • 3 – Burrow
  • 4 – Genius Loci
  • 5 – Traces

Documentary Short

  • 1 – A Love Song for Latasha
  • 2 – Colette
  • 3 – Hunger Ward
  • 4 – Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa
  • 5 – What Would Sophia Loren Do?

Live Action Short

  • 1 – The Letter Room
  • 2 – The Human Voice
  • 3 – Two Distant Strangers
  • 4 – Feeling Through
  • 5 – The Van

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