This is always my favourite part of awards season. Not because it’s by any means the “biggest” of the awards ceremonies, but it’s the first round of winners which always throws our predictions straight into the air.

Last year and ESPECIALLY this year the Hollywood Foreign Press Association have made a real effort to expand and diversify their voting body after controversy surrounding their limited and non-diverse group, many of whom have been members of the organisation for a very long time and adopt old school ways into voting (accepting gifts, paid trips to see contenders etc). The change in the organisation especially this year has shown. From International Pictures being recognised in the ‘Best Motion Picture’ categories to seeing smaller projects being recognised in Directing, there is a commendable effort to see change brought to the group.

The winners will be the next step into deciding where the culture is at with the HFPA.

As tradition, I’m going to see if I can predict these winners. So, HERE. WE. GO.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

1. Oppenheimer
2. Maestro
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Past Lives
5. Anatomy of a Fall
6. The Zone of Interest

The movie that (along with another picture that we’ll discuss very soon) that saved movie theatres and ignited a hope for cinema lovers once again. With its outstanding technical work, two award worthy performances from Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr., it’s difficult not to have ‘Oppenheimer’ at number one.

Whilst there is competition, I think it’s unlikely to cause an upset. Whilst technically brilliant, I believe ‘Maestro’ is too divided with audiences to win the top prize. However, with the limited body that is the HFPA if it is going to win the Best Film award anywhere it’ll be here. That would be relying on a big enough proportion of the institute are big ‘Maestro’ fans. If it screened well and at the right time this is possible, however, there is too much speculation for me to put it at number one.

‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ I can imagine will have some predicting it to win big as the GG have given Scorsese much love before. However, the last time a movie of his actually won top prize was all the way back in 2005 for ‘The Aviator’. With that and the big change up in voters, I think it’s a massive reach to say this movie is winning.

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. The Holdovers
4. American Fiction
5. Air
6. May December

THIS IS WHERE IT GETS FUN.  I honestly think ANY of the top 4 have a very good chance of winning. This is when awards seasons gets REALLY fun. When things are just so unpredictable.

I’ve put ‘Barbie’ as number one as it has the best case on paper. It was one of the two ‘Barbenheimer’ movies that brought back audiences to the big screen and is the most financially successful movie of the year. It became a huge trend in society (I’ve literally just been to a Barbie themed New Year’s Eve party) and I think it’ll be the most prevalent in voters minds for this reason.

Numbers 2 and 3 are pretty interchangeable. Both have as good as a case for separate reasons. ‘Poor Things’ is definitely the more acclaimed, technically impressive picture with an awards worthy performance from Emma Stone. ‘The Holdovers’, however, has the advantage of being the feel-good movie of the year, something awards voters struggle to ignore.

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
2. Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Thingd
3. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Greta Gerwig – Barbie
5. Bradley Cooper – Maestro
6. Celine Song – Poor Things

Christopher Nolan is winning!

That is literally it. Even in a world where ‘Oppenheimer’ doesn’t win Best Picture, this is his year. This will be his first win of many this year.

Best Actress – Drama

1. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moom
2. Carey Mulligan – Maestro
3. Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
4. Greta Lee – Past Lives
5. Annette Bening – Nyad
6. Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla

I feel like the Best Actress award will be a race until the end. With the competition all with such different narratives, I’d be really surprised if there was just one lady who swept the season. For this award ceremony, I think Gladstone has the edge in this category. Ever since the 1996 ceremony, whenever a Scorsese movie has a lead performance nominated at the Golden Globes, they usually win. Exceptions are 2002’s Daniel Day Lewis in ‘Gangs of New York’ which is very fair to say probably came very close to winning and 2006’s Leonardo DiCaprio  in ‘The Departed’ which definitely had a problem with the campaigning for whether he was lead and supporting being all over the place, confusing voters. This is a pretty damning stat that when you’re trying to predict a winner, it’s hard to ignore. With this category being so up in the air, I’m going to use this stat to make my prediction.

Best Actor – Drama

1. Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
2. Bradley Cooper – Maestro
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Colman Domingo – Rustin
5. Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
6. Barry Keoghan – Saltburn

We have a two-horse race, though one horse is definitely more in the lead.

Cillian Murphy benefits from having the love of the people. With love he already had from his ‘Peaky Blinder’ days to being up on the big screen in a strong leading role, audiences are loving chanting his name to start winnings awards. The HFPA are going to be feeling this when voting. Not only that, it’s a damn fine performance where he depicts a real life figure, and we all know how much voters LOVE that.

Who else is depicting a real-life figure? Bradley Cooper in ‘Maestro’. Whilst his support is nowhere near as strong as Murphy’s is, my god is this performance showy. Following the life of a well-known, real life figure through the highs and lows of life, laughing, crying, becoming ill, ageing with make-up, this performance was made to win awards, so don’t be surprised if it gets eaten up somewhere along awards season.

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

1. Emma Stone – Poor Things
2. Margot Robbie – Barbie
3. Natalie Portman – May December
4. Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple
5. Alma Pöysti – Fallen Leaves
6. Jennifer Lawrence – No Hard Feelings

She’s possibly the frontrunner for the whole Best Actress category of the whole season, and Emma Stone is definitely winning here for her performance in ‘Poor Things’.

 Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

1. Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
2. Jeffery Wright – American Fiction
3. Nicolas Cage – Dream Scenario
4. Matt Damon – Air
5. Timothée Chalamet – Wonka
6. Joaquin Phoenix – Beau is Afraid

Another two horse race here!

Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised if Giamatti or Wright won, I’m giving the edge to Giamatti.

The whole “their time in the right performance” has always been a strong case for any contending nominee. Heartfelt, deep and emotional, Giamatti captures the hearts of the viewer in a way that Jeffery Wright in ‘American Fiction’ doesn’t. Wright’s performance is definitely a strong one but it isn’t as emotional or have the same arc that Giamatti’s does.

Tough choice, but ‘The Holdovers’ gets the edge here.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
3. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
4. Jodie Foster – Nyad
5. Julianne Moore – May December
6. Rosamund Pike – Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph will probably win here. I don’t think she’ll be a sweeper of the season, however. Maybe I’m still stuck in 2023 awards season mode but this is giving me REALLY strong vibes from the same category last year. Much like how Jamie Lee Curtis had the “it’s her time narrative” going, so does Emily Blunt. It’s neither of their strongest performances and neither are hardly in their respective movies that much, but they’re overdue for awards recognition in a front runner movie.

So, whilst I think Randolph will start the season strong, I wouldn’t be surprised if Blunt steals her thunder. If Blunt does win the GG, then I’d say that it’s over for this category, and she’ll sweep the season.

Best Screenplay

1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Poor Things
4. Past Lives
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
6. Anatomy of a Fall

Once again, we have a ‘Barbenheimer’ showdown.

It really could be either of these movies, but I’ve predicted ‘Barbie’ as the winner here as whilst ‘Oppenheimer’ is loved and respected for its technical brilliance, ‘Barbie’ is loved for its story, character and meaning to it, all of which is credited to the screenplay.  

Most importantly, if ‘Barbie’ wins this category, Greta Gerwig will be the first female to win this award since 2006 when Diana Ossana won for ‘Brokeback Mountain’.

Best Original Score

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Poor Things
5. The Zone of Interest
6. The Boy and the Heron

‘Oppenheimer’ has got this in the bag!

Whilst ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ has a fantastic score and could get sympathy votes after the passing of Robbie Robertson, the ‘Oppenheimer’ score has carried a life of its own and no doubt will go down as another Nolan score classic, along with The Batman Trilogy and ‘Inception’.

Best Original Song

1. “What Was I Made For” – Barbie
2. “I’m Just Ken” – Barbie
3. “Dance the Night” – Barbie
4. “Road to Freedom” – Rustin
5. “Peaches” – The Super Mario Bros. Movie
6. “Addicted to Romance” – She Came to Me

It’s Barbie vs. Barbie vs. Barbie, hilarious!

I think it’s well and truly between “What Was I Made For” and “I’m Just Ken”.

“What Was I Made For” is currently nominated for 5 Grammy Awards including Record of the Year, so it has the support of the music industry. However, “I’m Just Ken” has the advantage of being the fun, fast-paced song that features within the movie and serves a purpose. I may be biased, but I think it deserves to win for this reason alone. The song actually serves a purpose to the movie.

Opinions aside, I think I have to give the edge to “What Was I Made For” as the industry acknowledgement of the song is much stronger then what “I’m Just Ken” has going for it. Could the GG change this? We’ll have to see.

Best Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Suzume
5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
6. Wish

This is Spider-Man’s to lose.

Genuinely cannot see this going another way.

Would be assume to see ‘The Boy and the Heron’ get some love and it be the first anime movie to win this category, but realistically that isn’t going to happen.

‘Across the Spider-Verse’ is still in contention to get nominated for Best Picture at other ceremonies, it kept superhero movies alive in 2023 when the rest flopped, I’m almost ready to say it’s locked in.

Best Foreign-Language Film

1. Anatomy of a Fall
2. Past Lives
3. The Zone of Interest
4. Society of the Snow
5. Fallen Leaves
6. Io Capitano

Genuinely really tough this category, and I don’t expect to be right come night of the ceremony. Before, it was easy to suss out the winner as eligibility for the Oscars compared to the Globes in this category are so different and they often would nominate a front-runner for the Oscars that wasn’t even Academy eligible (‘Minari being a recent example).

However, this year, we have four really strong contenders. Three very likely to get nominated in ‘Best International Feature’ at the Oscars and the other being ‘Past Lives’ which won’t be Academy eligible but is a strong contender anywhere else.

I think it really comes down to ‘Anatomy of a Fall’, ‘Past Lives’ and ‘The Zone of Interest’. Two partially English, partially foreign language spoken and one in mainly a foreign language but from the United Kingdom, an English-speaking country.

This category is well and truly a lucky dip, but I’m going with ‘Anatomy of a Fall’. ‘Past Lives’ has too much controversy around the nomination alone as it’s very much an American movie and ‘The Zone of Interest’ is too dividing as it is (though it did get a Best Motion Picture – Drama nod which was awesome). ‘Fall evokes the most International feel when looking at these three movies and has enough fans where I think it’ll edge out the win.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
5. The Super Maro Bros. Movie
6. John Wick: Chapter 4
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1

Being a brand new category it’s almost impossible to know how the voters conceive this award and their thinking when voting, but I think ‘Barbie’ is the most likely winner here.

Most financially successful movie of the year, a part of the ‘Barbenheimer’ craze, created its whole own pop culture trend, it’s hard to see any other way this could go.